Mumbai crosses 500,000-mark of Covid-19 cases, the quickest jump so far

According to data, the positivity rate in the city was around 18% on Thursday, which had touched 26% earlier this week after a sharp increase since February 10. It was between 4% to 7% in February and early March and went up to 15%-20% by March-end.

The city crossed the 500,000-mark of Covid-19 cases on Friday, over 13 months after the first case was reported in March 20020. Of the 500,000 cases, around 100,000 were reported in the past two weeks (since March 29) — making it the quickest surge so far. The number of cases in Mumbai has gone up since the past one month owing to the intensified testing by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). However, the positivity rate in the city has come down in the past two days, as of Thursday.

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Mumbai crossed the 100,000-mark in July last year, 200,000-mark in September, 300,000-mark in January this year and 400,000-mark on March 29.

According to data, the positivity rate in the city was around 18% on Thursday, which had touched 26% earlier this week after a sharp increase since February 10. It was between 4% to 7% in February and early March and went up to 15%-20% by March-end.

On Friday, the city reported 9,202 cases and 35 deaths, taking the case tally to 501,182 and toll to 11,916. The recovery rate in the city stands at 79% with 400,173 recoveries on Friday. Mumbai’s case fatality rate is 2.37% and there are 88,503 active cases in the city.

According to BMC officials, daily Covid cases in the city are stabilising between 8,000 and 10,000 and there is a possibility of a downward trend post April 20.

Municipal commissioner Iqbal Singh Chahal had earlier this week said, “If we look at the current scenario in the city of a second wave, the daily cases being reported in the city have almost stabilised between 8,000 and 11,000. If this trend continues, cases will start to go down post April 20, but only if citizens continue to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour.”

Chahal added, “ Covid-appropriate behaviour and taking the vaccine for those eligible are the two most important things citizens have to follow. We need to undertake Covid-19 vaccination on the lines of polio vaccination. And for this, we are trying to mobilise citizens. BMC is yet to get permission for door-to-door vaccination, and hence I have requested elected representatives from the city to mobilise citizens for Covid-19 vaccination.”

Meanwhile, experts said the surge in the number of cases is not only due to increased testing or mutations in foreign countries but also due to local mutations and lax behaviour of citizens. Dr Madhav Sathe, former professor of Microbiology at BYL Nair Hospital, said, “Covid-19 is undergoing mutation called as antigenic drift. It occurs very frequently, that is around six times a week. This mutation helps the virus spread rapidly, infecting many people in close families. Infections are mostly very mild in 85% to 90% people. Many are asked to remain in home quarantine.”

He added, “However, the effect multiplies when they (Covid-positive patients) do not follow restrictions at home, move around freely because nobody monitors them. So, the virus infects all others in the family. This has also happened due to prolonged lockdown last year, citizens are bored and frustrated. The second wave is not due to UK, South Africa or Brazil strains; it is mainly due to our own Indian mutated strain which spreads fast but causes mild or asymptomatic infection.”