Mumbai: Don’t make the same mistakes to spur third wave,say doctors

With further relaxations in lockdown-related restrictions in the state, health experts have cautioned citizens from ‘making similar mistakes’ to prevent the anticipated third wave.

When the second wave started in mid-February, weddings, vacations and family functions had turned into super spreader events due to non-adherence of Covid-appropriate behaviour. Now, with further relaxations in lockdown-related restrictions in the state, health experts have cautioned citizens from ‘making similar mistakes’ to prevent the anticipated third wave.

Healthcare worker collects swab sample at NMMC Hospital, Vashi. (HT PHOTO)

“The second wave started from high-rise buildings as they didn’t follow Covid-appropriate behaviour. They attended crowded weddings without wearing masks and went on vacations without following safety guidelines. Elderly people who are more vulnerable to Covid-19 also participated in family events,” said Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner, Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).

Results of an analysis by the civic body last month showed that 91% of the total Covid-19 cases in the second wave were reported from non-slum areas. Therefore, the civic body’s main priority this time round will be high-rise buildings in the days following the relaxation of rules.

“We hope that the public will learn from their mistakes. Repeating the same mistakes will certainly lead to an increase in cases,” added Kakani

In the second wave, the transmission rate was almost 100% more than the first wave due to the mutation of Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Experts said any violation of safety rules can increase the positivity rate in the city which is currently below 1%.

Dr Rahul Pandit, director-critical care, Fortis Hospitals Mumbai and member of the state’s Covid-19 taskforce, said the Delta variants are very infectious and can easily spread to a large number of people in small groups.

“In the impending third wave of Covid-19, these factors will continue to pose big challenges. Since we now know that the Delta variant is highly infectious and spreads as quickly as the chicken-pox virus, we must not drop our guard. Social gatherings that could turn into super spreader events must be avoided, and masking-up should be taken seriously,” said Dr Pandit.

Dr Harish Chafle, consultant intensivist and chest physician, Global Hospitals, Parel, said evolution and circulation of more transmissible variants of Sars-Cov-2 viruses can become a reason for the rise in a number of cases as it has happened before.

Anticipating a rise in cases in the next 3-4 weeks, ward officers have already started preparatory measures with Covid-19 jumbo centres in Mulund and Dahisar instructed to reopen to handle any sudden rise in cases.

“We are trying to sensitise non-slum residents about the need to maintain Covid-19 safety measures. We are making announcements about the guidelines through moving vehicles,” said Bhagyashree Kapse, ward officer, R-Central that covers Borivli.

Meanwhile, BMC is planning to boost vaccination drive. In Mumbai, almost 10% of the population is fully vaccinated but, experts from the state’s Covid-19 task force said the number is inadequate to stop a possible third wave.

Dr Pandit said that when the second wave hit Delhi, the seropositivity rate was 50% which indicates that 100% immunisation is key to stop the spread of the virus.

“In cities across India, especially metros like Mumbai, where at least 50% of the population has received their first dose, it is important that more and more people get vaccinated. A serosurvey which was done by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) did suggest that about 50-60% of the population across the country had developed a good number of antibodies. However, that must not make us complacent,” he said.

Medical experts have emphasised the need to avoid crowded places and adhere to double masking.

“There is also a possibility that this Covid-19 virus might further mutate to another variant which will make it more lethal. That’s why everyone needs to get vaccinated as soon as possible so that some form of herd immunity is achieved which will prevent cross-transmission of the virus in the community,” said Dr Chafle.