Shinde’s winnability factor and BJP’s dilemma

The leaders from the chief minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena were irked when the state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule, in a meeting of the party’s social media cell on Friday, said that the BJP would be contesting 240 out of 288 seats as the Shinde-led Shiv Sena does not have more than 50 MLAs

The leaders from the chief minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena were irked when the state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule, in a meeting of the party’s social media cell on Friday, said that the BJP would be contesting 240 out of 288 seats as the Shinde-led Shiv Sena does not have more than 50 MLAs.

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The Shinde camp MLAs reacted angrily questioning whether Bawankule had the right to decide on this matter. In a damage control exercise, Bawankule clarified that he did not mean so and that the decision on seat sharing is yet to be taken.

It pacified the Shinde-led party but it also brought out in the open what the BJP leaders have been thinking. They are not sure of the Shinde-led party’s ability to win a significant chunk of assembly seats though the latter insists that it has a statewide presence. Shinde’s party will need an electoral victory to prove it.

The Shinde camp claimed they won a significant number of seats in gram panchayat elections but it is not considered a good enough indicator as village elections are not fought on the party lines. A win in municipal or assembly elections would be ideal but the civic polls may not be held anytime soon.

In Kasba Peth constituency, Shinde campaigned extensively but could not attract those extra votes. In Chinchwad, it was BJP’s election management, the presence of a Sena rebel and the support that the candidate Ashwini Jagtap enjoyed that helped the party retain the seat. In case of Andheri east byelection, BJP chose to opt out as the Thackeray faction had a better chance of winning there.

This has been the focus in the internal discussions of the BJP in their election preparations. Strategists are assessing the impact of the three MVA partners—NCP, Congress and the Thackeray faction—contesting elections together.

Congress-NCP together have a good presence in most parts of Maharashtra except in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR)-Konkan regions, while the Thackeray faction may retain a sizeable chunk of Sena’s traditional support base in these areas. (The Thackeray faction is also banking on traditional support base in north and central Maharashtra).

Assuming these possibilities, BJP strategists are working on preparations for most of the 288 seats. That explains why Bawankule wants his party to focus on more than 80% of the seats.

Surprising but not shocking

That Shiv Sena veteran Subhash Desai’s son Bhushan joined the Shinde camp was surprising but not shocking. Desai is a trusted man of the Thackeray family. He is a trustee of Prabodhan Prakashan that publishes ‘Saamana’ and also the Shivai Trust that owns Shiv Sena Bhavan and several Shiv Sena shakhas.

It was senior Desai, who guided Uddhav Thackeray on organisational matters during his initial years as working president. Desai has been a part of the top brass that decided on issues right from elections to court cases to crisis like split caused by Narayan Rane or Raj Thackeray. That’s why Bhushan’s move was surprising.

During Desai’s tenure as the industries minister, first in Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP-Sena government and later in the MVA government, it was often gossiped that Bhushan interfered in the functioning of the Maharashtra Industries Development Corporation (MIDC). BJP MLA Atul Bhatkhalkar had even made this allegation against Bhushan and had sought a probe.

During the controversy over Vedanta-Foxconn semi-conductor factory shifting from Maharashtra to Gujarat, Desai was vocal against the Shinde-led government and the Shinde camp had threatened to probe his son’s interference in MIDC.

The Thackeray faction leaders allege that this threat could behind Bhushan joining the Shinde camp. Bhushan has denied this. His move has come when the party leadership is relying on Desai’s inputs in handling the organisation. The party thinks the setback will not affect Desai.

Damania’s outburst

Anjali Damania became the face of the anti-corruption brigade in Maharashtra as she pursued allegations of corruption against NCP leaders Ajit Pawar and Chhagan Bhujbal during the Congress-NCP rule and later against Eknath Khadse, when he was a minister in the Fadnavis government.

Earlier this month, as the high court disposed of petitions related to Konkan irrigation projects, she tweeted: “A very sad day for my activism. Today our irrigation PIL came up. Bombay High Court observed and recorded the several achievements owing to the PIL and came to the conclusion that the PIL has served its purpose and therefore disposed it….We thought ACB would restart the investigations that were stopped. Really disturbed.”

Damania was hoping the probe would nail those responsible for the alleged irregularity but that hasn’t happened, yet.