Allahabad University (AU) will soon have a state-of-the-art dedicated centre to predict the nature of Indian Monsoon a year in advance.
This centre will comprise experts from AU’s centre for atmospheric and ocean sciences who will study the latest scientific methodology using artificial intelligence, machine learning and data analysis to predict climatic conditions with over 80% accuracy, said central varsity officials.
The experts will study the nature of Indian monsoon and make correct predictions. They would also study prevalent factors like El-Nino, Eurasian snow cover, Southern Indian Ocean Dipole, melting of Arctic glaciers etc as these are becoming more relevant in monsoon forecasting due to climate change, said prof Suneet Dwivedi, who is the principal investigator of the project.
Dwivedi would undertake the project along with prof Jayant Tripathi and other teaching faculty members of AU, including Sudhir Kumar Singh, Vivek Kumar Pandey and Shailendra Yadav.
“The use of new factors in climate models is still limited. Due to this, expected accuracy is not achieved in the monsoon forecast. To identify new factors for accurate forecasting and include them in climate models, the DST has entrusted this important project to the centre,” said Dwivedi.
Under this five-year project, a high-performance computer cluster has also been approved for high-level calculations. In this project, ₹3.5 crore has been given for this computer cluster alone.
{{/usCountry}}Under this five-year project, a high-performance computer cluster has also been approved for high-level calculations. In this project, ₹3.5 crore has been given for this computer cluster alone.
{{/usCountry}}Dwivedi further said: “We will also study the diseases caused by changes in monsoon in the coming years and its impact on the rate of agricultural production. The centre will also work for disaster and water resource managements and help in providing policy inputs to the government.”
He said that theoretically it is possible to make predictions one season in advance with 80% accuracy. “In this, up to 50% of monsoon can be predicted on the basis of El Nino Solar Oscillation (ENSO)— a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, Dwivedi said.
The centre will come up under the ‘centre of excellence scheme’ of the department of science and technology (DST), New Delhi for which the Union government has sanctioned a grant worth ₹6 crore, they added.