The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) long-range forecast for the upcoming monsoon season suggests that most of Maharashtra, including Mumbai and Pune, are likely to receive ‘normal’ to ‘near normal’ levels of rainfall between June and September this year.
Officials said these predictions are purely indicative at this stage and will be refined in an updated forecast to be issued by May-end.
Overall, the country is expected to receive normal or above normal rainfall, with reference to the long period average (LPA) – which refers to the average rainfall recorded over 40 years (1961 to 2010). India’s LPA is 880mm. The range for ‘normal’ rainfall is between 96-104% of LPA.
“Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 98% of LPA,” IMD said in a statement on Friday.
While a site-specific forecast for the ‘monsoon core zone (MCZ)’, which includes most of Maharashtra, is expected along with the updated forecast in May, a chart, ‘Probability forecast of tercile categories for the seasonal rainfall over India,’ released on Friday by IMD shows that most parts of Maharashtra, particularly the Konkan coast and the drought-prone regions of Vidarbha and Marathwada, are set to receive normal to above normal rainfall.
“Most of the interior and coastal Maharashtra looks like it will receive good rainfall this year. Vidarbha and Marathwada may get above normal rainfall. But this forecast is only a stage-one forecast. It is to help policy makers, particularly in agriculture, and it does not give any indication of extreme weather events. For that, the daily operational forecast will come in handy, though authorities can now expect healthy rains, and take stock of disaster management or flood control measures if needed,” said Dr Jayanta Sarkar, scientist, IMD.
{{/usCountry}}“Most of the interior and coastal Maharashtra looks like it will receive good rainfall this year. Vidarbha and Marathwada may get above normal rainfall. But this forecast is only a stage-one forecast. It is to help policy makers, particularly in agriculture, and it does not give any indication of extreme weather events. For that, the daily operational forecast will come in handy, though authorities can now expect healthy rains, and take stock of disaster management or flood control measures if needed,” said Dr Jayanta Sarkar, scientist, IMD.
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