E-Paper
Maharashtra likely to witness above-normal rainfall; Marathwada may receive excess rainfall
The IMD also released a colour-coded forecast map indicating expected rainfall categories across the country
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday released its long-range forecast for the Southwest Monsoon season (June to September), indicating that most parts of Maharashtra are likely to experience above-normal rainfall, with high chances of excess rainfall in Marathwada and southern Maharashtra.
The IMD also released a colour-coded forecast map indicating expected rainfall categories across the country. As per this map, most areas in Maharashtra are marked in light blue, indicating above-normal rainfall. Marathwada, parts of southern Maharashtra, and Vidarbha are shown in dark blue, reflecting a high probability of excess rainfall during the monsoon.
Since 2003, the IMD has been issuing operational long-range forecasts (LRF) for the Southwest Monsoon rainfall averaged over the country in two stages — the first in April and an updated forecast at the end of May. In a press conference held in Delhi, M Ravichandran, secretary, the Ministry of Earth Sciences, and Dr M Mohapatra, director general of Meteorology, IMD, announced the first forecast for the upcoming monsoon season.
“The Southwest Monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal. Quantitatively, it is expected to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ±5%,” said Ravichandran.
When asked, officials confirmed that parts of Maharashtra are indeed expected to receive rainfall in the excess category. However, they clarified that this forecast primarily focuses on national trends, with more detailed regional projections to be provided in the updated forecast due at the end of May.
Responding to queries about the onset of the monsoon and the possibility of pre-monsoon cyclones, Mohapatra said, “It is too early to predict the monsoon onset in India, as its progress is a dynamic process and can only be assessed after May 15. As for cyclones, while their formation during the pre-monsoon period cannot be ruled out, it remains a dynamic phenomenon and cannot be forecast at this stage.”
Mohapatra further noted that the snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia between January and March 2025 was below normal, a factor historically associated with stronger Indian summer monsoons.
last year, Maharashtra experienced ‘above normal’ category rainfall, with 26% excess rainfall received between June 1 and September 30. As per the official data, the state recorded 1252.1 mm of cumulative rainfall between June and September.
Speaking about the seasonal monsoon forecast SD Sanap, senior meteorologist from IMD Pune, said, “This forecast can be seen as a big relief; however, to issue advisory for user end like farmers or even the common people, the short range forecast is more important. The current forecast has been issued for the entire monsoon season, which is 120 days, and hence, the rainfall intensity may change as per the variability in weather conditions. Moreover, the current forecast is more useful for the policy makers like the state government and the local bodies, so that they can prepare in advance for the upcoming monsoon season.”
On the climatic factors influencing this forecast, officials explained that while Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific, the atmospheric circulation features resemble La Niña patterns. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other models indicate that Neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon season. Additionally, Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean, with forecasts suggesting they will also continue through the season.
