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Jharkhand: It’s UPA vs NDA in Ramgarh bypoll; result to set tone for general and assembly polls in 2024
The election was necessitated after Congress legislator Mamata Devi was disqualified on December 26 last year following her conviction in a violent protest case in 2016.
RANCHI: While around 3.34 lakh voters of Ramgarh constituency would exercise their franchise on Monday to decide who would be their next representative in the Jharkhand assembly, the bypoll result could set the political ball rolling in the state which would also witness assembly elections, around six months after the general elections are held next year.
The election was necessitated after Congress legislator Mamata Devi was disqualified on December 26 last year following her conviction in a violent protest case in 2016.
While 12 candidates are in the fray, the constituency, around 40 kilometres north of the state capital, is all set for a direct battle between Congress candidate Bajrang Mahto, husband of Mamata Devi, and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) Party’s Sunita Chaudhary, wife of Giridih Lok Sabha member CP Chaudhary.
While Congress’ Mahto is a joint candidate of the ruling JMM-Congress-RJD combine government led by chief minister Hemant Soren, AJSU Party’s Chaudhary is being backed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The seat has traditionally been a stronghold of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, Ajsu Party and BJP. Barring the 2019 assembly elections, when the alliance between Ajsu Party and BJP broke, Ramgarh has been represented by NDA partners in the last two decades. Ajsu’s parliamentarian CP Chaudhary has represented the seat thrice since 2005.
In 2019, Congress’ Mamata Devi had won the seat as a joint candidate of the JMM-Congress-RJD pre-poll alliance with a handsome margin of 28,718 votes, defeating Sunita Chaudhary, wife of CP Chaudhary in a three-corner contest.
NDA allies BJP and AJSU Party had parted ways, impacting the poll fortunes of both parties. BJP’s Raushan Kumar got 31,874 votes, sizeably more than the victory margin. With the two parties having come together again, their cadre is upbeat about their poll success.
With the seat set for a tight contest, both sides have thrown their might behind their candidates and are claiming victory. While chief minister himself led the UPA campaign from the front, AJSU Party chief Sudesh Mahto, backed by top BJP leaders in the state, has left no stone unturned during the canvassing.
While both sides are claiming victory, independent political observers see the by-election through the prism of the prevalent issues and the impact the result could have on their relevance in upcoming elections. Independent political analyst Sudhir Pal said the election result would be a reflection on both arithmetic and chemistry of state politics.
“Besides coming together of the old allies AJSU Party and the BJP, the election is happening when the ruling combine has been riding high on certain decisions which are guided by emotions related to the state and tribals, especially 1932 Kahtiyan-based domicile. It will be interesting to see how that plays out in Ramgarh which is dominated by Mahto-Kurmis who are also seeking tribal status. Both candidates are Kurmis. It would be interesting to see which side the voters tilt this time,” said Pal.
“Moreover, the government is also on a sticky wicket at present as far as giving jobs is concerned, especially after their employment policy was struck down by the high court. The opposition has been making a major issue out of it. Hence, the result is going to be a reflection on the issues that could cement the future course of political discourse in the state,” he added.
While the ruling dispensation has a comfortable majority of 48 in the house of 81, with one seat being vacant, the main opposition BJP has 26 members and its ally Ajsu Party has two legislators. Since 2019, Ramgarh by-election is the fifth assembly bypoll. The ruling combine has managed to retain all four seats till now.
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