Australia’s 2028 Olympic qualification safe despite T20 World Cup flop — rankings still favour them

Here's why Australia’s Olympic spot is still safe despite a humiliating T20 World Cup group-stage exit

For the first time in 17 years, Australia, champions in 2021, crashed out at the group stage of a T20 World Cup. The injury-hit Mitchell Marsh-led side lost to Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka in succession before a washed-out Zimbabwe-Ireland clash confirmed their early elimination. They still have a fixture remaining against Oman later this week, but the humiliating exit has sparked concerns that it could dent their hopes of qualifying for the 2028 Olympic Games. However, Australia still have time on their side.

Australia are out of T20 World Cup 2026 (AFP)

Cricket will feature at the Olympics for the first time in 126 years when the T20 format debuts at the 2028 Los Angeles Games, scheduled to be held at Fairplex in Pomona, California. While qualification for the women’s competition will be determined by this year’s T20 World Cup, the pathway for the men’s event has not yet been officially finalised.

According to a report in The Guardian last year, the men’s competition is expected to feature six teams. The USA will qualify automatically as hosts, alongside one top-ranked side from each ICC regional division, the Americas, Africa, Europe, Asia and Oceania, based on the ICC T20I rankings at the cut-off date.

Australia, currently ranked No. 3 in the ICC T20I rankings, were widely expected to remain the top-ranked side from the Oceania region ahead of New Zealand (No. 4). However, following their early World Cup exit, The Age reported that Australia risk being overtaken if New Zealand, runners-up in 2021, reach the semifinals or final of the 2026 T20 World Cup. In that scenario, the Black Caps could become the highest-ranked Oceania side and claim the Olympic berth.

Yet the rankings calculation is more complex than a simple positional swap.

Although Australia and New Zealand are separated by just one spot, the gap between them stands at eight rating points. On the surface, that may seem surmountable, but ICC rankings are calculated using a weighted rating system devised by statistician David Kendix.

Team ratings are determined by dividing total points earned by matches played, with results weighted based on opposition strength and recency. Matches from the past two years carry full value, while those from the preceding two-year window carry half weight. Rankings are updated annually around May 1.

Currently, Australia’s rating is based on 48 matches, while New Zealand’s is calculated from 62. Should New Zealand reach the final of this World Cup, their tally would rise to 67 matches, compared to Australia’s projected 49.

If Australia lose to Oman, their rating would dip from 258 to 256.

For New Zealand to surpass that figure, they would need to increase their current total of 15,515 points to 17,152, a gain of 1,637 points from their remaining five matches.

Even in a best-case scenario, victories over Pakistan, England and Sri Lanka in the Super 8, followed by wins against South Africa in the semifinal and India in the final, New Zealand would accumulate a maximum of 1,491 points, still leaving them 146 short.

And if Australia defeat Oman, maintaining their rating at 258, the gap becomes even more difficult to bridge, even with a maiden T20 World Cup triumph.