India have chosen to bat for three Tests in a row now. It worked at Centurion, bombed at Wanderers and has already turned out to be a disaster at Newlands. By dismissing India for 223, 64 less than the average first innings total (287) in the last five Tests at this venue, South Africa have won the first battle. No decision is random and Virat Kohli too stuck to the most logical explanation at the toss that runs on the board is always the better option. “You cannot control what's above your head,” he said.

But in the 10 innings India have batted first before this Test in South Africa, England and New Zealand—where there is considerable lateral movement—they had crossed 300 just thrice. Two of them came at Nottingham and Lord’s, considerably flatter pitches compared to Centurion where India scored 327 in the first Test. Batting wasn’t easy, not impossible, at Newlands. But this Indian batting is nowhere close to the superiority or comfort level to take that risk on a regular basis.
The pitches in South Africa are generally slow to begin with before becoming quicker and better for batting—especially on Day 2 and Day 3. There is grass, some cracks that could later be a problem for batters and the pitch report by Pommie Mbangwa, Hashim Amla and Vernon Philander—who was an absolute legend at Newlands—said one end could offer more bounce while the other more lateral movement. And then it even drizzled for a while just after the toss. That India ignored all the signs despite a far superior fast bowling line-up isn’t a glowing testament to its conviction of batting last.
{{/usCountry}}The pitches in South Africa are generally slow to begin with before becoming quicker and better for batting—especially on Day 2 and Day 3. There is grass, some cracks that could later be a problem for batters and the pitch report by Pommie Mbangwa, Hashim Amla and Vernon Philander—who was an absolute legend at Newlands—said one end could offer more bounce while the other more lateral movement. And then it even drizzled for a while just after the toss. That India ignored all the signs despite a far superior fast bowling line-up isn’t a glowing testament to its conviction of batting last.
{{/usCountry}}The data too may have compelled India to not try bowling first. In the last five Tests at Newlands, teams batting first won four times. Same was the case in each of the three Tests during India’s last tour of South Africa in 2018. The only time India won the toss and elected to bat during the 2021 England tour was on a damp, grassy Leeds pitch where they were dismissed for 78 in the first innings. Even when they were put to bat at Lord’s and the Oval, England ended up getting first innings leads. Nothing alters the reality that India aren’t exactly the most confident lot batting first—or batting for that matter—on most occasions.
Not much has come out of another toss won and India batting coach Vikram Rathour agreed after the close of play. “When we saw the pitch it looked dry. It was overcast but we backed ourselves to do well,” he said. “The records here too suggested that. I thought there were some soft dismissals in the later part of the innings, we could have done better definitely. But we have the bowling to defend this score.” It will still be difficult to overlook the fact that all six specialist batters were caught by the wicketkeeper and in the slip cordon. Or that only Cheteshwar Pujara and Rishabh Pant batted for 50 deliveries or more when Kohli alone faced 201 balls. Who knows but for some change of tact, South Africa could have been in India’s position right now.