India vs Australia: Numbers suggest India firm favourites against Aussies in T20 series

India are currently ranked second in ICC T20 rankings while Australia are ranked third, but despite their being one spot between the two teams there seems to quite a big difference between the two sides when it comes to on-field performances.

Theoretically at least, as the overs in a cricket game reduce, so does the difference between the ability of two sides, as the chance for the cream to rise to the top is significantly less than in matches where the time frame is higher.

India are currently ranked second in ICC T20I rankings (AFP)

You wouldn’t have thought that principle applied when two sides of equal ability came together in a high profile series. However, that is exactly what Australia will be counting on when they take on India in a three-match T0 series in November.

India are currently ranked second in ICC T20 rankings while Australia are ranked third, but despite their being one spot between the two teams there seems to quite a big difference between the two sides when it comes to on-field performances.

It’s not only now that there seems to be a gap between the two teams, it has been the case since both teams played their first ever T20 game, Australia in 2005 and India in 2006. Since then both teams have played over 100 T20 matches (110 for Australia, 107 for India) and India have won almost 65% of their matches compared to Australia who have a rather moderate success rate of 52%.

The numbers for Australia take another hit when it comes to teams above them in the ICC rankings. Pakistan are top-ranked team in the ICC rankings and the men from the land Down Under have a wretched record against Men in Green. Two teams have faced each other on no fewer than 20 occasions and Aussies have come out on top on just seven times. Against India (ranked 2nd), the record is even worse in terms of percentage as Australia have won only a third of the matches (5 out of 15).

Compare that with India, who have an envious record against Pakistan, winning seven out of eight encounters (87.5% win rate) and as previously mentioned India have a favourable record against Australia, winning 67% of all matches.

Much of Aussies’ success has come at home while India have done well no matter where the matches have been played. Australia have a win percentage of 47% in matches played at neutral venues and away from home, while India have won 48 out of 71 completed matches away from the comforts of home, which equates to a win percentage of 67%.

As hard as it is, let’s forget what numbers have been saying for a minute, and look at what the on-field performances have to say. Unfortunately for Australia, they tell a similar tale. India won the inaugural T20 World Cup in South Africa in 2007 and reached the final of the 2014 edition in Bangladesh. Australia, on the other hand, have reached the final only once where they were outclassed by England in Bridgetown, Barbados in 2010.

Consistency of selection has played a big role in why India are a better team in the shortest format of the game. In 100 matches thus far, a total of 93 players have represented Australia, India on the other hand have handed caps to only 78 players since 2006. More opportunities allow players to get settled quickly and more comfortable you are the more chance for one to blossom.

Returning to the numbers, the consistency in selection process seems to be paying rich dividends for India. In the last three years (including 2018), India have a win rate of 72%, 70% and 81% (approximately) respectively, while Australia seem to be treading water comparatively with rates of 50%, 40% and 60%.

Things don’t really good for Australia, especially considering India wiped the floor with Australia last time two teams played each other Down Under, winning series 3-0.

Australia, despite the trials and tribulations of the last few months still have some great players and the series will be more than a competitive one but if the past is anything to go by the visitors won’t be coming bearing any presents in the series scheduled in the very near future.