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Yashasvi Jaiswal, the 3rd Indian batter to score 300? What are the chances in 2nd Test vs West Indies?
Yashasvi Jaiswal's time advantage allows him to bat deep, potentially leading to his first triple century.
When Yashasvi Jaiswal walked off the field at stumps on Day 1 of the 2nd Test vs West Indies, the score beside him read 173 not out. India stood comfortably at 318 for 2 after the first 90 overs of the game. Shubman Gill remains with him in the crease at 20. The day belonged to the young Indian opener, but as Delhi’s evening shadows lengthened, one question crystallized in the mind of the fans: Could this innings become something truly historic?
Historical context
Triple centuries in Test cricket are mythology. Only 33 have been scored in the format’s long history. Even rarer is it for an Indian batter to go past the landmark. Virender Sehwag and Karun Nair are the only two Indian batters to have Test triple Hundreds under their belt. History tells us that expecting a 300 from any position is foolish. But predictions are not made on mythology; they are built on probabilities.
The time and circumstance
The most critical factor that is currently in favour of Jaiswal is time. India batted 90 overs while losing just two wickets, and still have eight in the bank. From the current situation, India can bat deep into day 2, allowing Jaiswal two full sessions. This runway is the single biggest advantage for the left-handed opener.
The bowling attack of the West Indies, composed of Jayden Seales, Anderson Phillip, Jomel Warrican, Khary Pierre, and Roston Chase, worked diligently but looked toothless to say the least. While Seales looks really skilled and Warrican has the two wickets that have fallen so far, there is a serious lack of bite on a seemingly benign surface. This West Indies attack presents a huge chance for the batters to stack up their Test numbers.
Behind Jaiswal and Gill sit Jurel, Jadeja, and Sundar - batting depth that eliminates pressure and the chances of a collapse. Jaiswal can extend freely and uninhibitedly, and his seventh Test century could well turn into his first ever and India’s third Triple Century in Test cricket.
Calculating the chances
To assess the likelihood of Yashasvi Jaiswal’s triple century, we employed a state-based Bayesian approach: starting with the historical case rate of Test triple centuries, we applied conditional multipliers for a batter already 150 plus and set in the crease, adjusted for attack quality and time available, and keeping declaration in mind. Player form provided the final calibration using match data from trusted sources.
Notably, a Triple century remained an outlier even with Jaiswal batting at 173. But taking the mentioned factors into consideration, the probability sits around 5%, with a plausible range of 3-8%. One in twenty is a defensible bet. If the opener survives the first 12-15 overs on Day 2, that probability will climb sharply, and after that, the only real obstruction could be his determination and temperament.
