Of the five states that go to polls in the coming weeks, four seem to be heading for bipolar contests. An analysis of the latest assembly elections reveals that among the states that have at least 10 Lok Sabha constituencies, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are ranked third and sixth when it comes to the combined vote share of the top two parties in the state, a simple test to gauge whether the contest is bipolar. Chhattisgarh, which had a third
Of the five states that go to polls in the coming weeks, four seem to be heading for bipolar contests. An analysis of the latest assembly elections reveals that among the states that have at least 10 Lok Sabha constituencies, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are ranked third and sixth when it comes to the combined vote share of the top two parties in the state, a simple test to gauge whether the contest is bipolar. Chhattisgarh, which had a third party that grabbed nearly 8% votes in 2018, is headed for a direct fight between the BJP and Congress this time. Mizoram, which votes on November 7, is the outlier with three parties — the Mizo National Front, the Zoram People’s Movement and the Congress — in the race. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, the BJP and the Congress are defining the election; smaller parties are hoping to align with either of the two or make an impact in their pockets of influence. Telangana is poised for a Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS)-Congress contest unless the BJP manages a late surge.
There is no single or common explanation as to why some states stay bipolar while others encourage multiple players. The Congress retained pole position in most states, until the rise of regional parties from the 1960s onwards, and the BJP and Mandal outfits in the 1990s. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where the Mandir-Mandal divide was most pronounced, the Congress constituency was distributed among different parties. In states where the regional parties challenged the Congress by championing linguistic nationalism or nativist causes, the rise of the BJP turned the contest multipolar. States such as Rajasthan and MP are multi-regional entities, that offer limited scope for regionalism. However, in both states, smaller parties with niche vote banks have emerged. The Congress and BJP will soon have to factor them into their plans. In Chhattisgarh, which was created out of MP based on its regional character, the local Congress leadership now emphasises the Chhattisgarhiya identity. Former CM Ajit Jogi had called his party Janta Congress Chhattisgarh and nearly turned the 2018 polls into a three-cornered contest by positioning himself as a regional face. A similar politics is at play in Telangana, where regional identity remains strong: Both the BRS and Congress are claiming credit for the state’s creation in 2014.
Bipolar or multipolar, no party can take office for granted any longer. Voters have become demanding and force parties to be accountable. Electoral battles have become intense, which is good for democracy.
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