For almost two months after India began its coronavirus vaccination drive, infection rates were among the world’s lowest. In this period, vaccine uptake was hampered by widespread hesitancy and many experts, as well as this newspaper, advocated for the government to abandon its tiered strategy. The suggestions were implemented eventually, but not before this devastating wave of infections gathered momentum. India also ignored several indicators that invariably foreshadow the resurgence of an epidemic: The reproduction number of the virus began inching up in mid-February, and the test positivity rate followed three weeks later. These examples underscore a basic approach policymaking needs in a pandemic: Interventions need to be proactive, not reactive.
The experiences of other countries explicitly chart out the two paths India could find itself on. It can either go down the route taken by Israel, the United Kingdom (UK) or the United States (US), where life is now returning to normal; or it can follow the path of Brazil, which has some of the highest per capita casualties for a populous country and has turned into a hotbed for dangerous new variants. All of these countries suffered large outbreaks, but the three that turned it around did so with large-scale vaccinations. These examples have been known to our policymakers for some time now and while India’s large population presents tougher challenge than these countries dealt with, the learning is clear: India must make sure the universal vaccination drive it has allowed starting May 1 is a success (and, if possible, should start the process from Monday or Tuesday) .With constraints on eligibility removed, there’s no reason why five million or even 10 million vaccine doses can’t be administered a day.
Only this can dam the stream of infections. The process will require addressing the very significant issue of vaccine hesitancy. And it will require the government to expedite sourcing by leveraging domestic industry and any diplomatic goodwill it has among nations that have doses to spare. In tandem, it needs to launch a distribution blitz, which will need to address concerns of how doses will be available to those under 45 years, since that responsibility appears to fall entirely on states that till now were left out of the process. Even though the gains from vaccines could take at least two months to accrue, immediate, rapid universal coverage is the only tool to stop the virus apart from a long-drawn-out lockdown, which, after a tough 2020, is hardly an option at all. India must make sure its universal vaccine drive is a success.
{{/usCountry}}Only this can dam the stream of infections. The process will require addressing the very significant issue of vaccine hesitancy. And it will require the government to expedite sourcing by leveraging domestic industry and any diplomatic goodwill it has among nations that have doses to spare. In tandem, it needs to launch a distribution blitz, which will need to address concerns of how doses will be available to those under 45 years, since that responsibility appears to fall entirely on states that till now were left out of the process. Even though the gains from vaccines could take at least two months to accrue, immediate, rapid universal coverage is the only tool to stop the virus apart from a long-drawn-out lockdown, which, after a tough 2020, is hardly an option at all. India must make sure its universal vaccine drive is a success.
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