There are two ways to understand the possible impact of the results of the bypolls to 30 assembly constituencies, and three Lok Sabha seats, spread across 14 states and one Union Territory. One is through the prism of leaders and the second is through the prism of parties — but irrespective of which perspective one picks up, there is a common thread. These elections were fought in their respective local terrain and were largely driven by local factors, specific to
There are two ways to understand the possible impact of the results of the bypolls to 30 assembly constituencies, and three Lok Sabha seats, spread across 14 states and one Union Territory. One is through the prism of leaders and the second is through the prism of parties — but irrespective of which perspective one picks up, there is a common thread. These elections were fought in their respective local terrain and were largely driven by local factors, specific to that constituency or that state. Therefore, any attempt to read a larger national message in this may be unwise. The results, however, still reveal important political trends.
Understanding the results through leaders has become an important variable in Indian politics. Those chief ministers (CMs) who have recently won an election or are in firm control of their state units or have a deep connect with the grassroots or are enterprising or all of the above have done well. Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh are all veteran political figures, and have earned political capital — either within their parties, as in the case of Mr Sarma, Mr Gehlot and Mr Chouhan, or in the larger political theatre, as in the case of Ms Banerjee — with successful results in their respective states. Those CMs who haven’t been able to deal with emerging discontent at the state-level or have been imposed top-down or confront major internal contradictions haven’t been able to deliver. Jairam Thakur in Himachal Pradesh and Basavaraj Bommai in Karnataka will suffer a dip in strength and credibility, with Mr Thakur particularly vulnerable as his state heads for polls next year.
If one interprets the results through the prism of parties, conventional wisdom holds that incumbents have an advantage in bypolls. In Bengal, MP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Assam and some of the other Northeastern states, this theory has held. But the more interesting examples are where it hasn’t held. In Telangana, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to make inroads and this may have a possible impact on the somewhat cosy relationship between the Telangana Rasthra Samithi and the BJP. In Himachal, the Congress’s win has catapulted it as a possible frontrunner for next year, the first elections after the death of its veteran leader, Virbhadra Singh. In Haryana, farm protests continue to erode the ruling alliance. The big lesson from the bypolls is that Indian politics remains competitive, fragmented and democratic at the state-level.
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