Engaging with President Trump
The India-US relationship has grown to such an extent that it is unlikely to be affected by a change in the White House.
As Donald Trump begins his second term as the president of the United States (US), there is little to suggest a shift away from the fundamentals that have driven strategic alignment between the US and India over the past two decades, especially in key areas such as security and defence, strategic concerns such as the challenge posed by China and recent initiatives to jointly develop and set standards for critical technologies. For much of this period, bipartisan consensus in the US on the importance of the partnership with India has deepened, benefiting New Delhi in numerous domains. This is reflected in the outgoing Joe Biden administration’s decision to end restrictions on key Indian nuclear entities and the Trump transition team’s move to set up a meeting of the Quad foreign ministers to coincide with the inauguration. In a sense, therefore, work on crucial pillars of the India-US relationship is expected to continue uninterrupted and this is something that Indian leaders such as external affairs minister S Jaishankar have been quick to point out in recent weeks, ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
The tricky part is the chaos, uncertainty and whimsical decision-making that accompanies a Trump presidency, especially in foreign policy. The world, including the closest allies of the US, is tense not knowing what the new president is going to unleash. The MAGA agenda of Trump’s core support base, trade and investment, and policies on immigration are just three areas where the path chosen by Trump can have a major impact on the contours of global relations. Given the numerous pledges and threats he has held out over the past year, the question is if Trump will walk the talk. For example, will he go ahead with retaliatory tariffs on India, and will he be willing to go along with the imperatives of Make in India, when his stated goal is bringing manufacturing back to the US? Even a step back from the Biden administration’s strong posture on China could have ramifications for India, while a move to shrink the US’s role on the global stage could impact the rules-based order.
The India-US relationship has grown to such an extent that it is unlikely to be affected by a change in the White House. Trump is perceived as a friend of India, and more significantly, as a personal friend of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. These should not be reasons for complacency and New Delhi should be prepared for nimble responses and deft footwork to respond to the challenges that lie ahead.