After his resounding electoral success in the Telangana elections, K Chandrasekhar Rao (aka KCR) has announced that his focus will now be national politics. He has revived the idea of a non-Congress, non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) front, and already met Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik in this context. KCR sees Trinamool Congress chief and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, and Uttar Pradesh’s principal regional players, Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav, as other possible constituents of this broad front.
The motivation here is not difficult to discern. 2014 was the first time in over two and a half decades that the role of regional parties at the centre shrank. In 1989, it was a National Front government led by Janata Dal which ousted the Rajiv Gandhi regime. In 1996, the United Front government brought together a constellation of regional and left parties together. And both the National Democratic governments under Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the United Progressive Alliance governments under Manmohan Singh were heavily dependent on regional parties. As the possibility of the 2019 election throwing up a hung Parliament increases, regional parties will be back in demand. A bloc that includes KCR, Banerjee, Patnaik, Yadav and Mayawati could win at least 100 seats. The idea then would be to negotiate from a position of strength.
But there are three obstacles to this front becoming a political reality. For one, the interplay of these five leaders with the two national parties is different. For KCR, the Congress is a bigger enemy than the BJP and many suspect a tacit understanding between the two. For Mr Patnaik, both the Congress and the BJP are rivals in the state but he has shown an inclination to support the latter at the centre. For Ms Banerjee, the BJP’s rise in Bengal is a major challenge; she is committed to a broad alliance to defeat them; her difference with the Congress primarily stems from ambition and reluctance to accept Rahul Gandhi as a leader. For Mr Yadav and Mayawati, the main enemy is the BJP and the Congress could in fact be a part of the broader UP Mahagathbandhan. So the motivations and ambition of each leader are different and whether they will come together at all is not clear. In case they do ally, the second issue will crop up on the day the results of the Lok Sabha election emerge. There is nothing that compels all five parties to stay together. Depending on their numbers, they would be free to negotiate with whoever seems closer to forming the government. Each of these leaders will also seek to corner the best share for his or her own party, and even seek leadership. And finally, the premise of a non-Congress and non-BJP front may work as a pre-poll bargaining chip but post-results, any government will need a national party as an anchor or a supplement. Just look up the history of all coalitions since 1989. No government can be formed without either the support or leadership of the Congress or the BJP. That may well finally halt the KCR train.
{{/usCountry}}But there are three obstacles to this front becoming a political reality. For one, the interplay of these five leaders with the two national parties is different. For KCR, the Congress is a bigger enemy than the BJP and many suspect a tacit understanding between the two. For Mr Patnaik, both the Congress and the BJP are rivals in the state but he has shown an inclination to support the latter at the centre. For Ms Banerjee, the BJP’s rise in Bengal is a major challenge; she is committed to a broad alliance to defeat them; her difference with the Congress primarily stems from ambition and reluctance to accept Rahul Gandhi as a leader. For Mr Yadav and Mayawati, the main enemy is the BJP and the Congress could in fact be a part of the broader UP Mahagathbandhan. So the motivations and ambition of each leader are different and whether they will come together at all is not clear. In case they do ally, the second issue will crop up on the day the results of the Lok Sabha election emerge. There is nothing that compels all five parties to stay together. Depending on their numbers, they would be free to negotiate with whoever seems closer to forming the government. Each of these leaders will also seek to corner the best share for his or her own party, and even seek leadership. And finally, the premise of a non-Congress and non-BJP front may work as a pre-poll bargaining chip but post-results, any government will need a national party as an anchor or a supplement. Just look up the history of all coalitions since 1989. No government can be formed without either the support or leadership of the Congress or the BJP. That may well finally halt the KCR train.
{{/usCountry}}