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Politics, coalition and governance
Challenges ahead for the BJP as allies show disappointment, posing potential threats in Maharashtra and Bihar.
With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) falling well short of the required majority in the Lok Sabha, and depending on allies to make up the numbers, it was widely believed that the party would have to give up plum ministries if it wanted to form the government. The council of ministers announced on Sunday, and the portfolios announced on Monday, belie this. The BJP has retained key ministries, including the big four (defence, home, external affairs, and finance), something that seemed inconceivable just a week ago. The council does reflect changes — to accommodate allies, to make space for senior BJP leaders from the organisation or states, and to account for losses — but its overwhelming theme is continuity. It is believed that the BJP managed this by convincing allies to look at a larger arrangement (spanning state elections and Rajya Sabha slots, not just ministries), promising inducements (special packages for states), and respecting seniority (former chief ministers cannot be treated as just another MP). However it managed the process, the fact is that the new NDA government does not look very different from the second Modi government, and that should come as a relief to people worried that governance would become a casualty of coalition politics.
But the politics will continue to be challenging for the BJP, as is already becoming evident from the reactions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP, both disappointed allies from Maharashtra. The NDA’s performance in Maharashtra (and, in contrast, the INDIA bloc’s) suggests that it is in danger of losing the state where assembly polls are to be held later this year. The party can ill-afford that: A loss in the state would mean assembly-level accommodations will no longer be possible, and restive allies will likely bargain aggressively for slots in Delhi. That’s a problem that could arise in Bihar, too, although the NDA in the state did far better than the INDIA bloc in the Lok Sabha polls. The party must be relieved that there’s no such threat as far as its largest partner, the Telugu Desam Party is concerned; the elections to the state happened along with the Lok Sabha one. It will be interesting to see how the BJP manages this, the political aspect of its alliances — for inability or failure to do so could create challenges on the governance front. To be sure, partners wanting to engage in brinkmanship will be aware that the BJP is not just 15 times as large (in the Lok Sabha, by representatives) as the second largest party in the NDA, but also a party that has a phenomenal recent track record of ensuring it is always on the right side of numbers.
