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The bitter battle to gain power in Delhi

Jan 13, 2025 02:45 PM IST

The outcome will have national implications. Hence, the big push on the ground by three national parties

How do you view the Delhi assembly elections due in February 2025? Is it a struggle to secure the residual powers as Delhi is now a Centre-administered state? If that is so, then why so much hoopla? The answer is clear. Our politics is not a geometric design created out of clear, straight, or concentric lines. It’s a complex maze resembling the dense forests of Abhujhmad in Chhattisgarh. Delhi assembly elections are unique as they have become a prestige match for three national parties.

New Delhi, India - Jan. 10, 2025: Delhi BJP activists being detained during a protest against AAP for allegedly making "fake" claims regarding registration of voters from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the electoral rolls ahead of Delhi Assembly polls, near AAP Convenor Arvind Kejriwal temporary residence in New Delhi, India, on Friday, January 10, 2025. (Photo by RAJ K RAJ / Hindustan Times) (RAJ K RAJ /HT PHOTO) PREMIUM
New Delhi, India - Jan. 10, 2025: Delhi BJP activists being detained during a protest against AAP for allegedly making "fake" claims regarding registration of voters from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the electoral rolls ahead of Delhi Assembly polls, near AAP Convenor Arvind Kejriwal temporary residence in New Delhi, India, on Friday, January 10, 2025. (Photo by RAJ K RAJ / Hindustan Times) (RAJ K RAJ /HT PHOTO)

Let’s begin with the ruling Aam Admi Party (AAP). Arvind Kejriwal is in the fray and determined to secure a fourth term. A lot of water has flown in the Yamuna since he first assumed office in Delhi 12 years ago. The AAP won the title of a national political party in the 2022 Gujarat assembly elections by securing 12.9% of the total votes polled. In Punjab, their government has a clear mandate. If we set aside the oldest party in the country — the Congress — the AAP is the only Opposition party that has formed governments in two states.

This fact enthuses those who want non-Congress or non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governments. However, disturbing realities haunt the AAP too. Most of its founding fathers are no longer with the party. The party that came to power professing an anti-corruption agenda is tormented by the fact that some of its top leaders have faced months of jail terms on corruption charges. This is the reason the AAP leaders went into a public relations overdrive the moment they were released from prison to influence public opinion, teetering on the brink due to a 12-year-long anti-incumbency and corruption charges, in their favour.

For the AAP, a simple majority isn’t enough. It needs a huge mandate to counter the threat to its government as it fears the BJP may lure some of its legislators. They also know a defeat will create a threat to their political existence. If the AAP is able to form the government for the fourth time in a row then Kejriwal will be well within his right to nurse greater ambitions. He would like to expand further in other states as well as in the INDIA bloc.

The INDIA bloc is already facing issues. Trinamool Congress chief and West Bengal Chief minister Mamata Banerjee has made it clear that she’s against the Congress’s preeminent position in the bloc. Sharad Pawar, Akhilesh Yadav, and Arvind Kejriwal have obliquely supported her. Banerjee’s claims will gain heft if the AAP is able to form government in Delhi and the Congress fails to make a mark.

It will also send the message that the Congress is losing its political ground due to repeated losses in state elections. It’s not that overnight the Congress was weakened to a level where it was unable to win even a single legislative seat in the last two assembly elections. They have steadily lost ground to the AAP. This makes the Delhi assembly elections a make-or-break contest for the Congress.

Is the Congress ready for it? Initial reports don’t enthuse their supporters. Till now Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra or party president Mallikarjun Kharge haven’t addressed a single public meeting in Delhi. Isn’t it a tad late for the Grand Old Party to cover lost ground when their opponents have been visiting neighbourhoods for weeks? Will the Congress pay for its lackadaisical approach in Delhi? Experts think if the Congress wins a little over 10% of the votes then it would become difficult for Kejriwal to form the government on his own. But will the Congress be able to pull it off? During the last assembly elections, 63 out of its 66 candidates lost their deposits and the party could only muster 4.26% of the votes. Its state leaders and workers may work hard but till the time the top leaders put in the hard yards, the party shouldn’t expect any miracles.

This is the scenario where mentioning the BJP becomes imperative. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is addressing a series of rallies in Delhi. Just before the elections were announced, he inaugurated India’s first semi high-speed inter-city train on the RRTS section between New Ashok Nagar in Delhi and Meerut. Earlier, he launched projects and schemes worth thousands of crores. Senior ministers Amit Shah and JP Nadda are keenly involved in the election process. During the Haryana and Maharashtra elections, the central leadership had minutely observed and managed the electoral process and the same efforts are visible in Delhi.

The BJP knows if they want to defeat Kejriwal in his den, a high decibel campaign is necessary. The BJP’s urgency stems from the fact that Kejriwal’s brand of politics wreaks maximum damage to the party. Apart from these national parties, groups including the Bahujan Samaj Party, Assaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, and Dalit leader Chandrashekhar’s Azad Samaj Party are also in the fray. Will they be able to perform a miracle? Or, will they end up playing spoilsport for the national parties?

We need to remember that a majority of Muslims voted for the Congress-led INDIA bloc in the last general election. All the state assembly elections since Lok Sabha results in May 2024 have witnessed a trend where the majority of Muslims are gravitating towards the Congress. Will the minority vote for the Congress or stick with Kejriwal?

It’s no surprise that the parties are leaving no stone unturned to win, which will lead to more bitterness. The tragedy is that important issues related to the well-being of the people are lost in this vicious cacophony. It’s clear Indian democracy is still a work in progress and has a long way to go.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal

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