The world is at a precipice of sorts in terms of a response to the climate crisis. The US, under Donald Trump’s second presidency, has walked out of the Climate Accord once again even as the planet officially breached the 1.5°C threshold of warming of pre-industrial temperatures for the first time in 2024. To be sure, the threshold has been defined for longer-term averages rather than just a year.
One of the biggest imperatives to mitigate global warming and its
Renewables provided 43% additional energy in 2024, but were still just one-fifth of total consumption
About 43% of the additional energy consumed by the world in came from renewables and nuclear energy in 2024. This is 10 percentage points up from 2023. China matched the global average in meeting new demand from cleaner sources, and the US and the EU met the majority of their new demand from non-fossil fuel sources. India performed better than countries in South-east Asia, other than China, but was still behind the global average. Still, despite the high share in meeting additional energy demand, the share of clean sources in energy demand in 2024 was only 19.7%. This is higher than in the past two years, but low for a world on the brink of a catastrophic climate crisis. See Chart 1
Carbon emissions are falling too slowly to mitigate global warming markers
Fossil fuel emissions grew at 0.8% in 2024 compared to 1.2% in 2023. This was led by a sharp slowdown in emissions growth in China, where, apart from continued adoption of new clean source installations, hydropower generation rebounded from the droughts of the previous two years. A slowdown in China’s economy, especially the real-estate sector, also contributed to the emissions rate slowing, the report said. A slowdown in emissions was also helped by a continued reduction in the US and the EU, although the reduction was lower than in 2023. In India, the emissions growth slowed by just 10 basis points (one hundredth of a percentage point) last year. While there is some reduction, the current pace of slowdown in emissions is far from what is required. According to estimates by Global Carbon Project, the world can only emit a cumulative 235 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) from 2025 onwards for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. In 2024 alone, total emissions were estimated to be 41.6 GtCO2, of which 37.8 GtCO2 were from fossil energy. Unless this annual rate is decreased sharply, the cumulative figure of 235 GtCO2 will be exhausted in just 6 years. Chart 2
A reduction is difficult with slow improvement in the carbon intensity of economic growth
The easiest way to reduce emissions is to reduce energy consumption, which would require de-growth. This is not an option for large parts of the world. So, decreasing emissions without de-growth requires one of two things -- lower energy consumed per unit of GDP (energy intensity), or lower carbon intensity in energy supply. Energy intensity decreased by only 1% in 2024 compared to a 2% annual rate during 2010-2019. This means that carbon intensity did not improve despite the energy supply becoming cleaner. Chart 3
2024 being the hottest ever year impacted the fight against dirty energy
Ironic as it may sound, energy consumption growth would’ve been slower in 2024 if it was not the hottest ever year, which increased the energy demand for cooling. Warm years also mean headwinds to growth and decrease hydropower generation in some areas because of droughts. Northern China, where droughts persisted, was one such area. Weather effects contributed 15% to the growth in energy demand in 2024, according to the report. While temperature effects had impact on other sources as well, the report attributes all of the growth in coal demand for energy production in 2024 to higher temperatures. Chart 4
and its adverse effects is to change the world’s energy basket from carbon emitting fossil fuels to renewables. The International Energy Agency’s 2024 Review of Global Energy report gives a snapshot of the progress (or lack of it) on this front. Here are four charts that explain what’s happening here.
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