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Punjab opinion poll projects 69–82 seats for AAP ahead of 2027 elections
SCORE Intelligence survey projects 17–34 seats for Congress and puts Mann ahead in the CM preference question, while estimating a decline in AAP’s vote share.
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The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) could win between 69 and 82 seats in Punjab’s 117-member Assembly if elections were held now, according to an opinion poll released by SCORE Intelligence ahead of the 2027 state elections. The survey projects a majority for the party led by Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann, with the lower end of its seat estimate also above the majority mark of 59.
The survey, conducted between September 13 and October 14, 2026, gathered responses from 28,347 people. It projects 17–34 seats for the Congress, 4–12 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and 2–6 each for the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Waris Punjab De. The survey lists one seat for others and identifies six seats as close contests or ties.
These figures are projections from an opinion poll and do not represent actual election results. The seat ranges also should not be added at their maximum values to derive a total, as each party’s estimate represents a separate range.
AAP leads seat projections despite lower vote-share estimate
The poll estimates AAP’s vote share at 38%, down from 42.01% in the 2022 Assembly elections. Congress is projected to secure 24%, compared with 22.98% in 2022. The BJP’s estimated vote share stands at 14%, up from 6.60%, while the SAD is projected at 12.5%, compared with 18.38% in the previous election. Waris Punjab De is estimated to receive 8.5%.
The survey’s projections indicate that AAP could retain a majority despite a lower estimated vote share than in 2022. However, the eventual outcome will depend on voter preferences and political developments closer to the election.
In the question on the preferred chief minister, 39.36% of respondents chose Bhagwant Mann. Congress leader Charanjit Singh Channi received 15.61%, while SAD leader Sukhbir Singh Badal was preferred by 10.42%.
The survey also examined public opinion on the state government’s performance. A total of 57.70% of respondents rated the government’s work positively, including 43.07% who described it as very good and 14.63% who rated it as good. Meanwhile, 20.18% considered its performance average and 22.12% rated it negatively.
Governance, law and order remain part of voter assessment
On law and order, 47.11% of respondents said they were satisfied with the situation in Punjab, while 10.83% were partly satisfied. Another 36.55% expressed dissatisfaction and 5.51% did not give a clear response.
The poll also recorded views on local elected representatives. Some 48.07% of respondents said they were satisfied with their MLA’s performance, while 35.14% were dissatisfied. A further 9.82% rated the performance as average and 6.98% did not express a clear opinion.
Drug-related concerns also featured in the survey. SCORE Intelligence listed drugs as the biggest local concern, with 39.3% of respondents identifying the issue. The findings indicate that public assessments of governance and local problems remain relevant alongside party preferences.
The survey included questions on the reach of government schemes, including financial assistance for women, free electricity and ration-related benefits. Its regional data covered Majha, Malwa and Doaba.
While the poll places AAP ahead in its seat projections and shows Mann leading the chief minister preference question, it also estimates a decline in the party’s vote share. The figures offer a snapshot of voter opinion several months before the 2027 Assembly elections; actual results may differ.
