After more than a week, Delhi records less than 500 cases

New Delhi: Delhi reported 412 cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) on Tuesday, taking the city’s tally to 14,465 cases, according to the daily health bulletin

New Delhi: Delhi reported 412 cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) on Tuesday, taking the city’s tally to 14,465 cases, according to the daily health bulletin released by the Delhi government. The number of new cases in the state fell below 500 for the first time in week, with the highest number of 660 recorded on May 22, but the respite may prove to be all too brief .

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On Tuesday, 12 more deaths were added to the total, taking the toll of the viral infection in the city to 288. These are the deaths that get added to the total after a review by the three-member death audit committee to establish that the primary cause of death was indeed Covid-19 rather than potentially fatal co-morbidities.

The positivity rate – the percentage of people who test positive– has gone up to 10% from 7.6% on May 18, when Delhi recorded 299 cases, which is one of the lowest numbers reported on a day this month. The average positivity rate over the last week has been 11.5%, with the highest of 13.8% recorded on Monday.

Delhi has already reached the second of the three scenarios for which a five-member expert committee had advised the chief minister to prepare -- when the city records 100 cases a day, followed by 500 a day and finally when the daily tally reaches 1,000.

“Delhi is likely to start reporting 1,000 cases a day within the next two weeks or even sooner,” said a senior official from Delhi government, on condition of anonymity.

That’s because air and train travel to and from the city has resumed and more public restrictions will be loosened at the end of Lockdown 4.0 on March 31, which will make it difficult to enforce norms such as social and physical distancing

“The numbers are likely to go up now that markets have opened up and people are travelling. However, the numbers also depend on the testing criteria, if more people are tested the numbers would be higher. So, it is not the numbers that we should be worried about, it is the number of deaths. We have to ensure early detection and treatment to prevent deaths,” said Dr Jugal Kishore, head of the department of community medicine at Safdarjung Hospital.

If current trends follow, around 30% of these 1,000 expected cases a day, or 300 people, would need admission each day.

All of the 2,000 beds in Lok Nayak Hospital, the biggest hospital dedicated for the treatment of Covid-19 patients, also have facility to provide oxygen.

Only about 0.4% people need ventilator support, according to Delhi government data which closely mimics the national average.

Currently, there are 4,462 Covid-19 beds in the city, 429 ICU beds, 343 beds with ventilators, and 2,632 beds with oxygen support are available in the city hospitals. Another 5,716 beds are available in 19 Covid Care centres in the city.

Delhi health secretary Padmini Singla informed Lieutenant Governor Anil Baijal on Tuesday that the government has ordered 28 ventilators and 435 oxygen concentrators (machines that selectively remove nitrogen from the ambient air to concentrate the oxygen to about 93%). Around 30,000 personal protective equipment kits in addition to the existing 50,000 and 3.5 lakh N95 masks have been ordered.

The meeting was attended by chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia, and senior officials from the health department.