BJP banks on welfare schemes, PM’s popularity in Karnataka

Last week, the Karnataka government reached out to Lingayats and Vokkaligas by announcing an additional 2% (each) reservation for them. The two castes are included in the state’s OBC list.

New Delhi Welfare schemes, a focus on development, and the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will work in the party’s favour in the coming elections in Karnataka, senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders said, adding that the recent rejig in reservation and sub-categorisation of quotas for people from the scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, and other backward classes will help the party buck anti-incumbency to retain power in the state.

On Wednesday, the election commission announced that the state will go to polls on May 10. (PTI)

On Wednesday, the election commission announced that the state will go to polls on May 10.

According to one of the leaders, a senior party functionary, the tried and tested model of social engineering, which involves bringing together various castes under a larger umbrella (effectively consolidating the Hindu vote) will be deployed in the state where the BJP currently has 117 legislators in the 224-member assembly.

This functionary added that the decision to bring in more castes into the ambit of caste-based reservation and raising the quotas for various castes will reap dividends for the party. SC and ST voters make up 24.5% of the electorate in the state, while OBCs Lingayats and Vokkaligas account for 14% and 11% respectively. Muslims make up roughly 16% of the state’s electorate.

“Earlier, the benefits of reservation used to be limited to castes with more heft, depriving smaller groups . In states such as Bihar the governments then came up with schemes for these targetted sub-groups such as the Maha Dalits, the Ati Pichda (most backward classes).”

Last week, the Karnataka government reached out to Lingayats and Vokkaligas by announcing an additional 2% (each) reservation for them. The two castes are included in the state’s OBC list.

While the government scrapped quotas for Muslims (saying reservations for them would come from the 10% quota for economically weaker sections), it increased the reservation for STs from 3% to 7% and SCs from 15% to 17%.

This will have a “huge impact”, the functionary claimed.

The social engineering formula, will also give the BJP an edge over the Congress that is counting on the 16% Muslim votes in the state, this person said.

“The Congress, when it was in power, neither added newer castes to the existing list nor did they increase the overall percentage of reservation...however, in an unconstitutional way they earmarked 4% reservation for Muslims.”

Amid reports that the party is facing resentment from the Lingayat community for replacing community strongman BS Yediyurappa with BS Bommai as Chief Minister, a second senior functionary said the party has been able to address this. “Both the former CM and the current CM have joined forces to ensure the party’s victory with a big mandate. The party’s biggest strength is the faith that people have in the governance model of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, so there is no question of the party facing a challenge on the leadership front,”this leader said.

Responding to a question on whether the party will continue with Bommai as the chief minister, the second leader said, the party will contest the polls with the PM as the face and use the duopoly Yediyurappa and Bommai.

“In states where the BJP is in power, it is standard practice to go to polls with the incumbent CM. Even in states such as Assam where the CM was changed after the polls, the party did not announce the new name till after the polls,” a third leader said.

In recent elections, in Tripura, Nagaland and Gujarat where the BJP retained power, the incumbent CMs were retained.

To be sure, while Modi and home minister Amit Shah have made it clear that Yediyurappa is the tallest BJP leader in the state, some state BJP functionaries have sought to downplay his importance.

The party’s outreach and campaign will be pivoted around the “BJP’s governance, PM Modi’s vision, credibility and monitoring of programmes to ensure last mile implementation of schemes,” the first functionary said.

The second functionary was non-committal on whether the BJP would follow its time-tested practice of dropping between a fifth and a third of sitting legislators to buck anti-incumbency. A decision will be taken over the next few days ahead of the central election committee’s meeting, expected to be held in the first week of April, this leader said. Analysts have already warned that in a state where defection is rife, this could set off an exodus.

Even as the party is expecting leaders from other parties to switch sides to the BJP in the coming days, the organisation is also geared to combat any rebellion on account of disagreements over ticket distribution. A third leader said the party may consider fielding fresh faces, especially in those constituencies where the incumbent has served for two terms and more.