A low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea was likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over the Southwest Bay of Bengal around Thursday and thereafter into cyclonic storm Michaung over Southwest and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. Some models are indicating that the cyclone may move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast even though there is no consensus on it yet.
“The cyclone is expected to intensify because the central Bay of Bengal has above normal temperatures and wind shear is low which also makes conditions favourable. There is no consensus among model results yet as to which direction the cyclone will move. It has the potential to intensify to a severe cyclone,” said an IMD official. Michaung was expected to change the wind direction over north India.
On Tuesday, a western disturbance lay as a trough in mid and upper-tropospheric westerlies. The induced cyclonic circulation was over South-east Rajasthan and adjoining West Madhya Pradesh in lower tropospheric levels. A cyclonic circulation was over South Sri Lanka and neighbourhoods in lower tropospheric levels. A fresh Western Disturbance was likely to affect the Western Himalayan region late on Wednesday.
A trough in easterlies is likely to run from the Southeast Arabian Sea to North Maharashtra across Kerala, and Coastal Karnataka from Wednesday to Friday. An interaction between middle-level westerlies and lower-level easterlies over the Central parts of the country during that period was likely to cause widespread rainfall.
{{/usCountry}}A trough in easterlies is likely to run from the Southeast Arabian Sea to North Maharashtra across Kerala, and Coastal Karnataka from Wednesday to Friday. An interaction between middle-level westerlies and lower-level easterlies over the Central parts of the country during that period was likely to cause widespread rainfall.
{{/usCountry}}An interaction of a Western Disturbance with low-level easterlies over the past two to three days led to intense rainfall, thunder, lightning, and hail in Western India, IMD said.
IMD director general M Mohapatra said there was an interaction between the easterly wave due to the northeast monsoon and an active western disturbance. “They were phase-locked which led to heavy to very heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and hail over several parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan. We warned of this intense rainfall activity around five days in advance.”
He added the phase-lock has weakened and the intensity of rainfall was expected to reduce. “But rain will continue in Uttarakhand, eastern Madhya Pradesh, and even parts of Bihar,” said Mohapatra.