Major world powers including the United States, China, and India have not sought speaking slots for their heads of state at the upcoming UN Climate Conference (COP29) World Leaders Climate Action Summit, scheduled for November 12-13 in Baku, Azerbaijan, indicating high profile absences that climate experts see as a worrying sign.
While national delegations will continue to attend and negotiate a new climate finance deal during the November 11-22 conference, experts worry that without top leaders from major carbon-emitting nations present, critical discussions on the climate crisis could be undermine.
Earlier this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s cancelled participation.
India’s participation will likely be led by minister of state for external affairs and environment Kirti Vardhan Singh, rather than environment minister Bhupinder Yadav, according to officials familiar with the matter.
Yadav is BJP’s in charge for Maharashtra elections. Officials said Yadav is expected to be busy during ahead of elections and hence is unlikely to attend COP.
The decision appears influenced by both scheduling conflicts and frosty diplomatic relations between India and Azerbaijan.
The situation is further complicated by the political transition in the US, where the Biden administration’s effectiveness has been diminished following Donald Trump’s election victory. Trump’s previous scepticism toward climate initiatives has raised concerns about future US commitment to climate action.
{{/usCountry}}The situation is further complicated by the political transition in the US, where the Biden administration’s effectiveness has been diminished following Donald Trump’s election victory. Trump’s previous scepticism toward climate initiatives has raised concerns about future US commitment to climate action.
{{/usCountry}}The timing is particularly critical as 2024 is expected to mark a significant milestone in global warming. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced on Thursday that this year will likely be the first when annual average temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – the lower limit set by the Paris Agreement. The service also indicated that 2024 is virtually certain to become the warmest year on record.
A senior official involved with the COP Presidencies Troika – comprising the UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil – explained the challenging context: “The agenda of COP29 is a difficult one and so far, developed and developing countries have not managed to agree on basic issues related to the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). In such a situation, it may be difficult for world leaders to speak.”
Several observers have noted the agenda around NCQG may be the key reason why world leaders are giving Baku a miss.
The NCQG has become a major point of contention. Developed nations are pushing for emerging economies, particularly China, to join as contributors. However, developing countries maintain that Article 9 of the Paris Agreement clearly assigns financial responsibility to wealthy nations for supporting climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.
At its simplest, NCQG involves setting a new financial target to support developing countries in their climate actions post-2025. This target is meant to build on the floor of $100 billion a year, set in 2009 (a funding target the developed world met only in 2022).
The European Union’s position, formalised on October 14, explicitly states that expanding the contributor group is essential for an ambitious NCQG. “The most likely explanation for the absence of world leaders is that developing countries want to buy time to resist the push to be included in the list of contributors,” noted one observer. “The developed nations, especially the US, have indicated contribution should be voluntary and have not suggested any quantum for NCQG. They would prefer to push talks to COP30 in Brazil.”
The European Commission explained von der Leyen’s absence as due to institutional transition, with Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra leading EU negotiations and European Council President Charles Michel representing the EU at leadership events.
The upcoming G20 Summit in Brazil (November 18-19) may provide an alternative forum for climate finance discussions. However, Trump’s election victory has cast a shadow over future U.S. climate commitments, with concerns about potential withdrawal from both the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also unlikely to attend COP29 following the collapse of his three-party ruling coalition this week.
The situation worsened when Papua New Guinea’s foreign minister Justin Tckatchenko announced his country’s withdrawal from high-level talks at COP29, describing them as “a total waste of time”, according to reports on Friday.
Climate activist Harjeet Singh, global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, warned about the broader implications: “Right now, the multilateral process that the world relies on to tackle the climate crisis is in serious jeopardy. Wealthy nations have fallen far short of their commitments – failing both to move away from fossil fuels and to deliver the necessary financial support to developing countries for a green transition and to address climate impacts.”
Singh added, “The dwindling attendance of high-level leaders at COP29 is a glaring signal of eroding trust in this process, just when unity is most crucial. COP29 must secure a bold and ambitious new climate finance goal, but this can only happen if developed countries recognise the stakes and act responsibly and with integrity.”
Despite these challenges, COP29 President-Designate Mukhtar Babayev remained cautiously optimistic at the pre-COP meeting in October: “We have done well to narrow down options, and the possible shapes of landing zones are coming into view. But we can clearly see the divides that the parties still need to bridge.”