Number Theory: Festive mobility numbers are both good and bad news

An HT analysis of latest Google Mobility Data shows that festivals have likely led to a big push to consumer spending.

Durga Puja and associated festivities are over. Deepavali is weeks away. There is a widespread agreement that festive demand is likely to be major driver of economic activity even as other factors, mostly global and beyond the control of Indian policy makers, generate headwinds for growth.

Idols of Goddess Durga being displayed by the Durga Puja committee at Red Road during the Durga Puja Carnival before the immersion, in Kolkata on Saturday. (ANI Photo) (Utpal Sarkar)

An HT analysis of latest Google Mobility Data shows that festivals have likely led to a big push to consumer spending. However, when read with the status of Covid-19 vaccinations and scientific warnings about

Latest mobility numbers – they are available for the week ending October 4, which is a day before VIjayadashmi – shows that four key components of non-essential mobility, namely retail and recreation, parks, and transit stations reached their highest level in the week ending October 4.

States with Bengali speaking population registered the biggest increase in retail mobility

That festivals drove up mobility last week can be seen from the fact that retail and recreation mobility increased the most in states with a significant Bengali-speaking population. Durga Puja is the biggest festival for Bengali Hindus in India. Retail mobility increased the most in Tripura (1.64 times) and the West Bengal (1.52 times) in the month leading up to the Dussehra week. A month ago, these states were ranked 14th and 28th respectively in retail and recreation mobility, a ranking that does not change much normally. However, in the week ending October 4, these two states jumped to the third and ninth spot respectively. Assam, another state with a significant Bengali-speaking population, registered the fourth biggest increase (1.37 times), and jumped from the eighth spot to the fourth spot. Given the festivals also tend to be a somewhat long holiday, Goa (1.38 times) registered the third biggest increase.

Retail mobility increased the most in Tripura (1.64 times) and the West Bengal (1.52 times) in the month leading up to the Dussehra week.

However, vaccination isn’t high enough to sustain high mobility

Dussehra was the beginning of the winter festival season in most parts of the country. As the third wave after the festivals during the winter of 2021 showed, vaccination is important to sustain this level of mobility and the economic activity that follows it beyond the festival season. This is especially so because although Covid-19 cases are at a low currently (2,478 cases per day on average in the week ending October 9, a level last seen in late May), scientists have warned of a winter wave driven by waning immunity and multiple variants converging towards mutations that evade immunity.

It is on this count that India is doing poorly. On October 9, it had been six months since the last shot for 59.7% people eligible for vaccines (all those aged 12 years or more) and nine months for 37.9%. For a small proportion – 4.1% of those eligible – it has been a full year since the last shot. All these numbers are higher among adults whose two-dose vaccination was largely complete by early this year, and who have chosen to skip their booster shots. 64.7% adults got their last shot six months ago, 43.8% nine months ago, and 4.8% a year ago. What is also worrying is that all these numbers are increasing over time.

As the third wave after the festivals during the winter of 2021 showed, vaccination is important to sustain this level of mobility and the economic activity that follows it beyond the festival season.

Time to make boosters free again?

How can India maintain some protection from an upcoming wave? Apart from pandemic-appropriate behaviour, a fresh vaccine dose can prevent the problem of waning immunity as described above (bivalent vaccines are also needed, but there’s not been much talk of these). As only around 23% adults have taken a booster shot so far and 85% are eligible, just administering the third dose (a fourth shot has also been administered in countries such as the US) can serve that purpose. But for that, India might need to extend the free booster programme that ended on September 30. As HT has pointed out in the past, while this programme is not the silver bullet for fixing the booster uptake problem, it did increase the speed of booster administration significantly. This speed has declined after the free window ended. The average pace of booster jabs has decreased from 1.45 million doses per day in the week ending September 30 to 0.26 million doses per day in the week ending October 9 (although public holidays may explain some of the fall). This does not bode well either for public health or the economy.

As only around 23% adults have taken a booster shot so far and 85% are eligible, just administering the third dose (a fourth shot has also been administered in countries such as the US) can serve that purpose.