Historic Haryana hat-trick for BJP, INDIA begins new innings in J&K
BJP's historic win in Haryana secures a third term, while NC-Congress alliance dominates Jammu & Kashmir elections, reshaping national political dynamics.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Tuesday pulled off a historic and unexpected victory in Haryana and was set to form the government for a record third time, and the National Conference-Congress alliance blanked out opponents in Jammu and Kashmir’s first assembly elections in a decade and first as a Union Territory, marking a significant verdict with national ramifications.
The results of the assembly elections – the first since the Lok Sabha polls this summer – buoyed the BJP ahead of crucial contests in Maharashtra and Jharkhand later this year, and sent the Congress back to the drawing board even as it held encouraging signs for entrenched regional outfits such as the NC. Both elections witnessed largely bipolar contests, squeezing the space for independents and smaller parties.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the victory in Haryana and said it will “resonate far and wide”.
“On such a holy day, the sixth day of Navaratra, lotus has bloomed for the third consecutive time in Haryana. Truth has triumphed in the land of the [Bhagwad] Gita. Development and good governance have won,” Modi said.
Also Read: What the Haryana and J&K verdict means for India’s top political leaders
Addressing party workers and supporters at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, Modi also criticised the Congress for its “negative” politics. “Conspiracies are being hatched globally to weaken India’s economy, democracy, society. Congress and its cronies part of this game,” Modi said.
Complimenting the NC on its performance, Modi said the elections in the UT were a huge success for the Union government. “The election in Jammu & Kashmir was historic in many ways. This election was the first to be held after the complete implementation of India’s Constitution. After seven decades of independence, many sections of the society didn’t have the right to vote. In this election, they got the opportunity to vote for the first time,” he said.
In Haryana, the BJP defied two-term anti-incumbency to score an improbable victory as it posted its highest vote share and seat tally. It won 48 of the state’s 90 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 46. Its vote share stood at 39.94%, 3.45 percentage points higher than 2019 in what ended up being a close election with both parties neck-and-neck in terms of votes polled, and also 6.74 percentage points higher than 2014.
Interestingly, while its overall vote share was only 0.85 percentage points higher than the Congress’s, its median vote share was 4.4 percentage points higher than its rival’s, indicating that its overall number was pulled down by its performance in a few seats.
The party’s plan of consolidating non-Jat votes and blunting anti-incumbency by changing the chief minister just months ahead of polls – Nayab Singh Saini, an other backward classes (OBC) leader, took over in March – paid rich dividends as the BJP not only held on to its core vote but also made inroads into the Congress’s stronghold. And the party’s campaign headlined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah managed to capture fence-sitters and charge silent voters, even though it was strangely and deliberately low-key, something that helped it avoid addressing head-on, the many issues different sections of the state’s electorate had with the BJP.
“We want to thank the 2.80 crore (28 million) people of Haryana for endorsing the BJP’s work for the third time. I thank them wholeheartedly. This victory is solely due to PM Modi. Under his leadership, we are progressing. We did work for Haryana’s wrestlers, farmers, and youth, which the Congress could never accomplish,” Saini said.
In contrast, the Congress failed to carry forward the momentum it gained from the Lok Sabha polls – it had staved off a BJP sweep of the state after a decade and won five of the 10 seats – and slumped to just 37 seats.
The results contradicted exit polls that had widely predicted an impressive Congress victory in Haryana as the party was done in by its over-reliance on Jats, a dominant community that makes up a fourth of the state’s population but is also resented by weaker communities for its social dominance. Even in 29 Jat-dominated seats, the Congress won just nine. Overall, only 13 of the 27 Jat candidates fielded by the party won.
Open infighting in the party and resentment among some sections over the prominence of the Hooda family also appeared to have hurt the party, as did its strategy of not aligning with other outfits. The party won 37 seats, only six higher than 2019 despite 10 years of anti-incumbency building up against the state government.
The Congress improved its vote share to 39.94%, 11.86 percentage points higher than 2019 but it was not enough to trounce the BJP in a largely bipolar contest.
“We have lost many seats by a small margin. We have received complaints from many places and we will meet the Election Commission. The result is surprising for us...” Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda said.
North of Chandigarh, there was better news for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc. The NC posted its best results in a generation as it won on either side of the Pir Panjal, sweeping the Valley and picking up a smattering of seats in Jammu. It won 42 of the Union Territory’s 90 seats, recording an impressive strike rate of 75%. Its alliance partner, the Congress, picked up six seats.
Together, the alliance appeared comfortably placed to cross the majority mark of 46 and even build a cushion in case the lieutenant governor nominated five more legislators with voting rights – a development that would push the halfway mark to 48.
“There were attempts to destroy the NC over the last five years. So many parties were created here, whose only aim was to destroy the NC. But, God’s grace has been on us and those who tried to destroy us, have been decimated in the process. It is our duty now to meet the expectations of the people through our work,” Omar Abdullah said.
The results were a vindication for the NC, the Valley’s oldest party, and a moment of personal satisfaction for Omar Abdullah, who suffered a shock defeat in the Lok Sabha at the hands of then-jailed separatist Engineer Rashid. Then, that defeat may have well helped the party’s cause in these elections because it furthered the perception that Rashid, who was released from prison on bail, and formed a party, would support the BJP.
On Tuesday, candidates put up by Rashid and the Jamaat-e-Islami came a cropper as the electorate appeared to have reposed its faith in the NC, which posted its best results since the disputed elections of 1996. Even when it formed the government in 2008, it didn’t sweep the Valley in the manner it did on Tuesday.
In J&K, the polls gained additional importance because these were the first assembly elections in a decade and also the first such exercise since tectonic changes in August 2019 saw the region lose its special status and statehood.
The polls were considered to be the last step before the restoration of statehood. The campaign trail was dominated by emotive issues such as Article 370 and the region’s autonomy and everyday questions of governance and anti-incumbency. In the end, people appeared to have backed the strongest party in the Valley, the NC, even as they moved away from the separatists.
In Jammu, the BJP held on to its core constituency but slipped in Muslim-majority areas where a crop of independents and even an Aam Aadmi Party nominee won. The party ended with 29 seats, as compared to 25 in 2014.
“I have accepted the verdict of people. I thank them for their support,” said Jammu and Kashmir BJP chief Ravinder Raina, who failed to retain the Nowshera seat.
The polls held bad news for former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti’s People Democratic Party, which slumped to its worst-ever showing of three seats. Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija Mufti lost the family pocket borough of Bijbehara to NC’s Bashir Shah. This was a stunning reversal for a party that emerged as the single-largest outfit in 2014 and formed a government in alliance with the BJP.
“I want to congratulate the people of J&K for voting for a stable government . They [ the voters] thought the NC-Congress alliance will provide a stable government and fight the BJP. I think that is the biggest reason [for the victory of the NC-Congress alliance] We will play the role of a constructive opposition. The issues of the people do not end with an election,” Mehbooba said.
Overall, the results of the elections will reverberate nationally. It will have an outsized impact in shaping the political dynamics in the run-up to the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. It will serve as a boost to the BJP-led NDA government in the Centre. And it will also boost the morale of the BJP itself, which needed the help of allies to cross the majority mark in the Lok Sabha in this summer’s national elections.
The Congress will find its manoeuvring space limited with allies in both states after its disappointing show in Haryana and inability to make most of the coalition in J&K. It will have to rewire its strategy around managing regional satraps and redraw social coalitions, if it hopes to repeat the INDIA bloc’s strong showing during the parliamentary polls in Maharashtra.
The BJP will take heart in its ability to script an unlikely turnaround story in Haryana, a state where many pollsters felt the weight of anti-incumbency had become too much. The party’s twin strategy of changing the chief minister to stave off anti-incumbency and craft coalitions in opposition to the dominant community both paid rich dividends, as did the central leadership’s ability to manage the campaign and ensure a disciplined run.