Days after voting concluded across 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, all eyes are now on the exit poll predictions on Wednesday. Tamil Nadu recorded a staggering 84.69 per cent voter turnout on April 23, the highest turnout since Independence.
While the state waits for the counting of votes on May 4, the focus is now on the post-poll predictions as an intense debate is on whether the massive turnout indicates anti-incumbency or a wave in favour of chief minister MK Stalin.
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Though the complete picture in Tamil Nadu will be clear next Monday, the exit polls will predict the mood of the state and highlighting the issues that gathered spotlight during the polls.
What happened in 2021 polls?
In 2021, Stalin-led DMK registered a massive win against the ruling AIADMK, seeing a turnout of 72.78 per cent.
While the DMK won 133 seats, its ally Congress won 18 seats of the 25 it contested. The ruling AIADMK was reduced to 66 seats.
{{/usCountry}}While the DMK won 133 seats, its ally Congress won 18 seats of the 25 it contested. The ruling AIADMK was reduced to 66 seats.
{{/usCountry}}However, in the latest elections, the voter turnout has increased by over 12 percent, partly owing to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), during which 74 lakh deceased, duplicate and ineligible voters were removed.
There is also the TVK factor, which might make the bipolar contest into a triangular one. It remains to be seen whether actor Vijay, who has been a crowd puller ever since launching a party, will manage to make a dent in the two-way DMK vs AIADMK contest.
What Exit polls predicted for 2021 Election?
Most of the exit poll predictions in 2021 turned to be true for Tamil Nadu as MK Stalin-led party made a spirited comeback winning around two-thirds of the seats, enabling it to form government without the support of allies.
The pollsters have predicted a huge win for Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu in the 2021 assembly election.
India Today-Axis My India projected 175-195 seats for DMK, while giving 38-54 seats to AIADMK in the Tamil Nadu assembly.
Today's Chanakya projected 175 seats for DMK, while predicting 57 seats for AIADMK. Meanwhile, Republic-CNX exit poll results predicted 160-170 seats for DMK and 58-68 seats for AIADMK.
ABP CVoter has given 160-172 seats to Stalin’s party and 58-70 seats for the AIADMK.
However, in the 2016, most pollsters had gone wrong after they predicted a win for the DMK. The election results turned out to be a massive mandate for J Jayalalithaa as she retained the state, the first for a party since 1984.