Number Theory: How do first and second Modi govts compare in economic sentiment?

The findings of the March round of CCS allow us to measure consumer sentiment under the first and second Modi government

That India is the world’s fastest growing major economy and it will become the third largest economy in the world under the third Narendra Modi government is a given -- and also a big part of the BJP’s political pitch in the elections. The BJP’s critics, meanwhile, point out that the high growth rates, or the tag of world’s third largest economy in the world, will not mean anything to most Indians because India’s per capita income will continue to

The CCS numbers are purely notional and are driven by perception rather than objective economic conditions.

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  Consumer sentiment right now is weaker than what it was before 2019 elections

  The current situation index (CSI) of the RBI CCS was 98.5 in the March round. The CSI is calculated by adding 100 to the average of Net Responses of (General Economic Situation, Employment Scenario, Price Level, Household income and Overall Spending), and this number being lower than 100 means that the average of net responses on these indicators are negative. The March CSI score is lower than its value of 104.6 in March 2019. A comparison of net current and future (year ahead) perception on consumer sentiment on three key indicators of general economic situation, employment and income shows that all are lower for March 2024 than they were in March 2019.
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  And it's a reflection of fewer people reporting an improvement in March 2024 than March 2019

  The net current perception in the CCS is just the difference between the share of respondents who report an improvement and those who report a worsening. Because this does not include the share of respondents who report no change in their situation from a year ago, it is interesting look at the actual break-up of the three kinds of responses for specific questions. Once again, a comparison of March 2019 and March 2024 data on questions of the general economic situation, employment and income shows that the share of respondents who reported an improvement was higher in 2019 than in 2024 and those who reported a worsening is higher in 2024 than in 2019.
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  But a long-term trend of the CCS suggests that BJP might not be on a weaker economic wicket in 2024

  But a long-term reading of the CCS data could be used to make a different argument. While CSI in March 2024 is lower than it was in March 2019, it needs to be noted that this number has been on a rising trajectory almost consistently after the Covid-19 pandemic. In the 16 rounds of the CCS since July 2021 – the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic peaked in May 2021 – the CSI score has fallen in only one round and that too marginally. This is very different from the CSI trajectory in the first term of the Modi government as this number was falling almost consistently after the government announced demonetization in November 2016. In fact, the CSI score increasing in the December 2018 and March 2019 rounds was an aberration to the trend of falling CSI which continued from the May 2019 round. This could possibly mean that the economic sentiment in 2024 elections could be one of improvement in economic conditions rather than economic hardships.

Of course, the CCS numbers are purely notional and are driven by perception rather than objective economic conditions. Whether the BJP’s fortunes in these elections reflect consumer sentiment being weaker than what it was before the 2019 elections or by it being on a rising trajectory unlike in 2019 will only be known on June 4 when the results are declared.