In election-bound Tamil Nadu, NDA faces TVK dilemma
Tamil Nadu will vote in 2026 and Vijay’s TVK is attempting to emerge as an alternative to the DMK and AIADMK, the state's two dominant political forces
The stampede in Tamil Nadu’s Karur last week, which left 41 dead, has given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) an opening to expand its outreach in the poll-bound state where it lacks a strong presence, but, also set off speculation that it could possibly reset ties between the party and other political outfits, particularly actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), according to people familiar with the matter.
The state will go to the polls in 2026 and Vijay’s TVK is attempting to emerge as an alternative to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the two dominant political forces in the state. The latter is part of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The stampede occurred during Vijay’s rally on September 27 and the BJP, which renewed its alliance with the AIADMK in April, has blamed the DMK-state government for the tragedy. Party leaders have also been restrained in blaming the actor, giving rise to speculation that the BJP may be keen to have the TVK in the NDA.
The BJP has deputed an eight-member fact finding team of NDA leaders, which is expected to file a report shortly on the stampede. On Friday, former Union minister and member of the team, Anurag Thakur, wrote to Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin, asking for the authorities to submit a report explaining the cause of the stampede. To be sure, a party delegation has no standing to ask for a report. In the past, BJP governments in several states, including Uttar Pradesh, have even prevented delegations from other parties to visit them following similar tragedies or crimes targeting the underprivileged.
One BJP leader in Tamil Nadu said the party only wants to “fix accountability for the stampede … and since the DMK is in power, it is natural for us to question the chief minister”.
This person, who asked not to be named, added that Vijay has also attacked the BJP and the AIADMK.
Last week, addressing his supporters in Namakkal (hours before the Karur stampede), Vijay trained his guns at the AIADMK for aligning with the BJP and said the “true followers” of the party’s founder MG Ramachandran “were unhappy” with the move. At the same rally, he also accused the BJP and the DMK of having a “secret” alliance.
While a section of party leaders in the state are against including TVK in the NDA as this could upset the AIADMK, another section believes that a wider alliance that includes breakaway factions of the AIADMK and the PMK and the TVK will strengthen the NDA’s chances against the DMK.
The AIADMK is, however, not keen on this. On September 16, during a meeting with Shah, party general secretary, Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS), is learnt to have conveyed how his party is not keen on inducting expelled leaders.
“While several suggestions and permutations and combinations are explored ahead of elections, the party high command’s direction to the state unit is to strengthen our cadre and work closely with the AIADMK. Our alliance is poised to win as there is a lot of anti incumbency against the DMK, which has failed to provide good administration and crack down on corruption and people are impressed with the NDA’s development agenda,” said the person quoted above.
A second state BJP leader, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the party is focussing on strengthening its own base. “We don’t have a stronghold in terms of a region or communities…we don’t even have a strong local leadership. Our ally (AIADMK) too is facing challenges. And the many splits have left the party weak, So, we have to work to overcome these issues.”
The AIADMK had walked out of the NDA in 2023, miffed with the then party unit chief K Annamali’s attacks on former CM Jayalalithaa.
“The DMK and the AIADMK have been satraps that have dominated the state and not allowed national parties to grow, but there is also a possibility of a third front with TVK, PMK, AMMK (Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam), and expelled AIADMK leaders VK Sasikala, O Paneersalvam and others forming an alliance. They will, however, need substantial vote percentage to dislodge the two main contenders,” said the second leader.
He added the DMK will not lose unless the TVK wins 15-18% of the votes, which seems unlikely.
In the 2021 polls, the AIADMK won 66 of the 234 seats in the Tamil Nadu assembly, while the BJP won four and the PMK won five, taking the NDA’s tally to 75 while the DMK alone won 133 seats.
