India@79: Age, wage and rage | Number Theory

India enters its 80th year of independence today.

India enters its 80th year of independence today. The journey so far has been tumultuous in many ways but also one of significant achievements. Today, as the world’s largest democracy and its most populous country – India only overtook China on this count in 2023 – India’s challenges are best described by talking about the country’s demographic, its employment prospects and the anxieties around these two factors. Here is what data can tell us about it.

The journey so far has been tumultuous in many ways but also one of significant achievements.

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  India has the largest number of people and young people in the world

  India’s expected population, according to UN estimates, is around 1.48 billion in 2026. It is the most populous country in the world for a and is expected to remain so until 2100, the last year for which UN projections are available. Even if one were to look at the share of the young population at multiple thresholds – under fifteen, under twenty, or under thirty – India continues to be the most populous by a distance.
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  But India is not the youngest country in terms of median age

  If one were to compare the median age of the population for all 237 countries for which UN data is available, India’s 2026 median age of 29.2 years is ranked 95th youngest. Even if one were to restrict the comparison to top ten countries by population, India is ranked only fifth youngest behind Nigeria, Ethiopia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
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  And the average Indian has been getting older for a long time now

  India’s long-term median age trend, according to UN data, bottomed out in the 1970s at just about 18. Since then it has been increasing steadily, crossing 20 and 25 in 1993 and 2015. India’s median age will cross 30 in 2029 and 40 in 2056, if UN projections are to be believed. India’s workers, if one uses government reports on labour market – Employment Unemployment Surveys till 2011-12 and periodic Labour Force Surveys subsequently – are about to hit a median age of 40. The numbers were 33, 35, 36, 38 and 39 in 1993-94, 2004-05, 2011-12, 2017-18 and 2025.
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  Younger Indians are increasingly moving out of farming

  This is the most important demographic factor when it comes to Indian workers. Between 1993-94 and 2025, the median age gap between workers in agriculture and outside agriculture increased from zero to six years.
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  This is what makes it generating well paying jobs the most important challenge facing India

  Young workers giving up on farming, getting educated and aspiring for better jobs in India. But a large number of salaried jobs in India, especially outside the government, do not even give basic safeguards to workers. This shows in India’s official labour market statistics, which show that almost half of them do not offer either a written contract, paid leave or social security. Unless India fixes the decent wage problem , the rage of the young Indian will keep increasing.