US President Donald Trump's endorsement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) on the sidelines of the ongoing United Nations General Assembly comes 20 days after he praised a media report about Syria emerging as a corridor to evacuate oil and gas from the Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.
Even though many western think-tankers saw Syria as an alternative to IMEC, the latter is clearly a more viable proposition as it links the oil suppliers (Gulf) to refineries (India) and consumers (Indian subcontinent and Europe). This apart, stability of the Syrian regime is also remains a big question mark despite support from the Trump administration.
The IMEC links India (Mundra port) to the UAE (Fujairah port) via sea lanes, then through a pipeline to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel via solar-powered rail network, and thereon to Europe (Naples and Marseilles) via ships from Haifa port. The most crucial factor in all this is that the IMEC axis bypasses both the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal-Red Sea routes, and is least vulnerable to vagaries of West Asian politics and skirmishes. The Fujairah port is outside the Strait of Hormuz and in the Gulf of Oman, and has been targeted for this very reason by Iranian missiles.
However, the key to IMEC becoming a reality is Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, with President Trump offering a civil nuclear deal to Riyadh and selling USD 24 billion worth of F-35 fighters to the Kingdom in return. Fact is that Saudi Arabia was perhaps on the verge of joining the Abraham Accords when the Iran-backed Hamas scuttled the entire IMEC by orchestrating the October 7, 2023 terror strikes in Israel.
{{/usCountry}}However, the key to IMEC becoming a reality is Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, with President Trump offering a civil nuclear deal to Riyadh and selling USD 24 billion worth of F-35 fighters to the Kingdom in return. Fact is that Saudi Arabia was perhaps on the verge of joining the Abraham Accords when the Iran-backed Hamas scuttled the entire IMEC by orchestrating the October 7, 2023 terror strikes in Israel.
{{/usCountry}}Today, IMEC faces another challenge as Saudi Arabia has joined hands with Turkey and Pakistan in a defence pact; Ankara and Islamabad are both opposed to Israel. Even though the Trump administration is overtly quiet, it is deeply concerned over what is now known as the Mecca defence pact. It is for President Trump to bring Saudi on board IMEC, or else American clout in West Asia will take a hit at a time China is still not in a position to act as a security guarantor of the perpetually boiling region.
Meanwhile, India has cemented its ties with the UAE at all levels, with Abu Dhabi investing in Indian strategic oil reserves and India committed to food security of the brother nation. India’s defence ties with the UAE have also received a big boost with both countries sharing common hardware platforms and trading in local currencies. The India-UAE ties have also assumed significance due to the close relations between political leaders of both countries.
But IMEC, which is a vision of PM Modi and the UAE leadership, will only become a reality if Saudi comes aboard without its Sunni NATO (Mecca pact) baggage and reduced vulnerability from Iran and its proxies—Houthis from south and Hezbollah from north—in the region.