E-Paper
IPCC’s climate change mitigation scenario inequitable, says study ahead of COP27
The analysis highlights the need for new frameworks for emissions that is equitable for all and not just some developed nations
The scenarios considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for keeping global warming under 2 degree C are highly inequitable as rich countries will continue to occupy the largest shares of the carbon budget, said a new policy brief released days ahead of the United Nation’s (UN) climate change summit, COP27, which opened in Egypt’s Sharm El Sheikh on Sunday.
The policy brief, prepared by the Climate Change Programme at the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), Chennai, and the Energy, Environment and Climate Change Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, was released on Thursday.
The analysis said that the scenarios for global mitigation pathways considered by IPCC, the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change, project a highly unequal future world that perpetuates most inequalities. It also highlighted the need for new frameworks for emissions modelling that is equitable for all and not just some developed nations.
The team has assessed 367 of the 700 scenarios considered by IPCC AR6 that correspond to temperature targets of 1.5 and 2 degree C for their analysis.These scenarios were assessed by the working group III of IPCC for its sixth assessment report titled: ‘Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change’ released in April this year.
According to the brief, per capita GDP and consumption in developed countries is expected to be disproportionately higher than that in the developing and least developed regions up to 2050. It said the Annex-I countries (developed, industrialised countries) continue to appropriate a disproportionate share of the global carbon budget across all scenario categories until net zero emissions are reached globally.
“Emissions reductions for developing regions from 2020 to 2030 are comparable to or higher than the reductions for developed regions,” it added.
In the C1 scenario (in which warming is projected to be limited to 1.5 degree C, with a likelihood of 50% or greater), all developing regions begin emissions reduction in 2020, alongside the developed regions. In other scenarios, the peaking year is slightly delayed over a decade. As the carbon budget is increased marginally from attaining the 1.5 degree C goal to 2 degree C goal, the per capita GDP and consumption of developed countries are projected to be disproportionately higher, the brief said.
“Scenarios disregard future energy needs of the global South required to meet developmental goals. Primary energy consumption projected to grow for all developed regions (except Europe) and decline for all developing regions (except Sub-Saharan Africa’s minor increase),” tweeted Tejal Kanitkar, co-author of the paper and associate professor, School of Natural Sciences & Engineering, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, on Friday.
“Per capita fossil fuel consumption in developed regions continues to remain higher. Even coal use in North America is projected to be higher in 2050 as compared to Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Oil and Gas use continue to remain high in developed countries…Continued fossil fuel use in developed countries is facilitated by higher CO2 sequestration in developing countries. Across models and scenarios, at least over 65% (often more) of the sequestration happens in developing countries,” she tweeted.
The analysis of the scenarios also suggests that in 2050, a significant level of inequality persists in GDP per capita between developed and developing regions. Except for China, in C1 scenario the per capita GDP in the rest of the world in 2050 is restricted to USD 27,000 – USD 35,000 at most and for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa is restricted to even lower levels at USD 17-20,000 and USD 9-11,000 respectively. North America and Pacific OECD countries dominate in per capita GDP even in 2050. The North American region is projected to have the highest per capita energy consumption in 2050, across scenarios. It is projected to consume about 6-7 times more energy than Sub-Saharan Africa and 5-6 times more energy than South Asia in 2050.
“The scenarios used by IPCC focus on global scenarios with regional trajectories. They had released the database of scenarios considered and we analysed 367 of them. These have various variables for 10 regions globally including economic and energy variables, carbon sequestration put together. These integrated assessment models perpetuate a least cost optimisation structure. Basically, they tell you where is it cheapest to mitigate emissions and how. As per these models which are climate models coupled with economic ones, it’s cheaper to not let us grow,” said Tejal Kanitkar.
The analysis said that IPCC has already made it clear in its sixth assessment report that most scenarios considered do not make explicit assumptions about global equity, environmental justice, or intra-regional income distribution. HT wrote to IPCC on Friday seeking a response on the analysis’ findings and how equity can be integrated into the scenarios considered. IPCC is yet to respond on the findings of the brief.
