Karnataka assembly election results: As majority mark eludes BJP, here’s what could happen

Initial assembly election results suggested a clear majority for the BJP but later trends showed they were falling short of the halfway mark, opening up the state to various possible scenarios.

Karnataka’s political theatre has just drastically opened up in a matter of hours. If early leads in the assembly election results suggested a clear win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), enabling it to form a majority government, latest trends suggest that the BJP may fall short of the majority mark.

Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party celebrate after learning of the initial poll results of the Karnataka state assembly elections, in Bengaluru. (Arijit Sen / HT Photo)

The Congress has used this gap and extended support to the Janata Dal (Secular) with an offer of the chief minister’s post.

Here is what could happen in Bengaluru:

1. JD(S)-Congress government: With the second and third-largest parties coming together, at 3:15 pm, the Congress and JD(S) make it to 115 seats (EC data; out of the 222 seats which went to polls -- polling for two seats will be held later). This makes it the largest combine in the house. Together, they can stake claim to form the government, submit a list of signatures of all MLAs to the governor Vajubhai Vala, and on that basis, the governor could invite the JD(S) legislative party leader -- which will in all likelihood be HD Kumaraswamy -- to form the government and prove his majority on the floor of the house.

Once Yeddyuruppa is sworn in, he will have to prove his majority on the floor of the house. In this scenario, it will be instructive to watch if the JD(S)-Congress coalition can stay together, or if a section of JD(S) splits and moves away to BJP, or if a section abstains. In the second and third situation, if BJP can win over a section of the MLAs from JD(s) and independents, the party is through.

3. BJP-JD(S) government: Given that the JD(S) is the key swing force, tables may turn if the BJP decides to make a corresponding offer to the JD(S). This could be of a rotational chief ministership; it could entail plum portfolios at the centre besides a stake at the level of the state. While this is not the most likely scenario at the moment, it cannot be ruled out entirely.