Mid-day trend indicates big victory for TMC in Bengal; Congress, Left in crisis

TMC leads BJP in West Bengal's Lok Sabha seats, regaining support from upper caste and SC Hindu voters, while Muslims continue to back TMC.

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Police personnel escort election officials as they carry an EVM inside a counting centre in Delhi (REUTERS)

As West Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) left its principal adversary Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) behind at 30 of the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats till 2pm on Thursday, the trend indicated that the saffron camp failed to retain the ground it gained five years ago in north and south Bengal regions.

Nullifying speculations that Mamata Banerjee’s TMC might face an anti-establishment wave because of the corruption charges faced by its leaders in various cases that federal agencies are probing, the trend further indicated that her party had regained the confidence of a section of upper caste and scheduled caste (SC) Hindu voters who helped BJP set a record in Bengal in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls by winning 18 seats.

Muslims, who backed TMC in all recent elections, continued to support the party, the numbers pointed out.

The same communities, however, did not seem to have favoured Congress and the Left parties who contested as allies.

State Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury was trailing TMC’s Yusuf Pathan, a cricketer, at his Berhampore seat in Murshidabad district, which has Bengal’s highest Muslim population of 62.28 %.

At the adjoining Malda district, which has Bengal’s second-highest Muslim population of 51.27%, Congress candidate Isha Khan Chaudhury was leading at the Malda South seat that his father won in 2019. However, BJP’s Khagen Murmu, who won the Malda North seat in 2019, was leading. BJP won the Malda North seat in the last polls because Muslim votes got divided between TMC and Congress.

Although BJP won 18 seats five years ago, its victory march was confined to regions having either a high number of tribal voters or a sizeable population of Hindu Dalits, many of whom came from Bangladesh as refugees. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which was enforced in March, was promised to this section by BJP.

During a three-month-long campaign, Banerjee, the TMC chairperson and chief minister, projected CAA as a threat to both Hindus and Muslims saying it is a precursor to enforcement of National Register of Citizens (NRC), which left 1.9 million Hindus in jeopardy in BJP-ruled Assam in 2018 and the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), on which Uttarakhand passed a law in February.

In all her speeches, Banerjee also focused on her social welfare schemes, the principal beneficiaries of which are women who comprise almost half of Bengal’s population.

The most talked about among these schemes is Lakshmir Bhandar, under which women from general category get a monthly stipend of ₹1,000 and those from SC and ST categories get ₹1,200. The scheme was launched in 2021. Banerjee increased the stipends to the current amounts in the state budget earlier this year.

In 2019, BJP showed its best performance in north Bengal by winning seven of the region’s eight Lok Sabha seats.

At the Darjeeling seat, which BJP has won in all elections since 2009, its MP, Raju Bista, seemed to be headed for his second victory.

BJP was ahead of TMC at the Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar seats of north Bengal as well.

However, at Raiganj, where Muslims comprise almost 50% of the population and the SC population accounts for 27%, TMC’s Krishna Kalyani was ahead of BJP’s Kartick Paul till 2pm.

At north Bengal’s Balurghat seat, BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar, the winner of the 2019 polls, was trailing TMC’s Biplab Mitra till noon but took the lead after 2 pm.

“I am asking BJP workers not to get carried away by this trend. The counting will take a long time. I am confident that I will win,” Majumdar told the media.

The trend was no different in south Bengal.

BJP’s Debasree Chaudhury, who won north Bengal’s Raiganj in 2019 but was fielded from the Kolkata South seat in the state capital this year, was trailing TMC’s sitting MP Mala Roy. At this seat, Muslims and the SC community comprise 27 % and 16% of the population, respectively.

In south Bengal, BJP’s best performance in 2019 was in the districts where SC, scheduled caste (ST) and other backward classes (OBC) populations are comparatively high.

BJP won the Jhargram, Purulia, Bankura, Bishnupur and Midnapore seats that stand along the borders of Jharkhand and Odisha.

Till Thursday noon, BJP was trailing at Bankura, where its sitting MP and Union minister of state for education Dr Subhas Sarkar’s candidature was opposed by a section of the party’s district unit.

At the Midnapore seat, which was won by BJP’s former state president Dilip Ghosh, the party’s candidate Agnimitra Paul was trailing TMC by around 30,000 votes.

BJP’s Purulia MP Jyotirmoy Singh Mahato was trailing TMC’s Santiram Mahato by around 35,000 votes, indicating that tribal and SC voters were not backing the saffron camp.

BJP appeared to be holding ground at North 24 Parganas district’s Bongaon and Nadia district’s Ranaghat, both of which are located close to the Bangladesh border and have a sizeable population of Dalit Matua voters. BJP won both seats in 2019.

BJP trailed TMC at the south Bengal’s industrial belt as well.

Former Union minister of state S S Ahluwalia was trailing TMC’s high-profile candidate, former actor Shatrughan Sinha, at the Asansol seat while Dilip Ghosh was behind TMC’s Kirti Azad, a former Indian cricketer, by around 35,000 votes till 2pm. BJP won both seats in 2019.

“BJP is facing an anti-establishment wave across India, but it is not the case for TMC in Bengal. The trend indicates that people across the nation have voted for their democratic rights. Although BJP campaigned against TMC on the corruption issue, people did not buy it,” Professor Maidul Islam from the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences told HT.

“I don’t think there will be any major change in this trend. BJP will face a tough time,” he added.