Monsoon has withdrawn from most parts of northwest India and conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal from some more parts of Gujarat, Chhattisgarh; most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar; Maharashtra, Odisha and West Bengal during next 2 days said the India Meteorological Department on Sunday.
Monsoon commenced withdrawal on October 6 compared to the normal date of September 17 but in the past four days it has almost withdrawn from half of the country, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and parts of Gujarat, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh.
“Even in years when monsoon onset is slow, monsoon withdrawal can be quick. It’s because no low pressure system has formed that can bring further rain. So after cyclone Gulab and associated low pressure system crossed there was no other system bringing rain. However, we are expecting a low pressure area to form north Andaman Sea which is likely to cross the Odisha coast. This system may slightly delay complete withdrawal of monsoon and bring rains up to Maharashtra,” said DS Pai, scientist and head of climate research and services, IMD, Pune.
“Withdrawal of monsoon is very fast this time. We expect monsoon to withdraw from most parts of the country during the next 3 to 4 days but there is a slight chance that the low pressure area over Andaman Sea could intensify in to a cyclone or a depression which can bring a lot of rain,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Skymet Weather. There is no cyclogenesis warning from IMD yet.
{{/usCountry}}“Withdrawal of monsoon is very fast this time. We expect monsoon to withdraw from most parts of the country during the next 3 to 4 days but there is a slight chance that the low pressure area over Andaman Sea could intensify in to a cyclone or a depression which can bring a lot of rain,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Skymet Weather. There is no cyclogenesis warning from IMD yet.
{{/usCountry}}According to the IMD bulletin, a cyclonic circulation is lying over north Andaman Sea and neighbourhood. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region during next 36 hours. It is likely to become more marked and move westnorthwestwards towards south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts during subsequent 4-5 days. Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places with isolated thunderstorm (wind speed 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph) and heavy to very heavy rain likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 5 days, .
A cyclonic circulation is also lying over east-central Arabian Sea and is likely to persist during next 3-4 days and an east-west trough (area of low pressure) is at lower levels running from the cyclonic circulation over north Andaman Sea to cyclonic circulation over eastcentral Arabian Sea, said the IMD in its bulletin. Widespread and moderate rain with isolated heavy rain is very likely over southern peninsular India during next 5 days and over Maharashtra during next 2 days. Very heavy rain is very likely over Kerala and Mahe till October 14, said the IMD.
The country received “normal” rainfall during the four-month Southwest Monsoon season from June to September. All India monsoon rainfall from June 1 to September 30 has been 87 cm against the Long Period Average of 88 cm of 1961-2010 (99 percent of its LPA).