Severe cyclone Remal is expected to make landfall between Sagar Island in West Bengal and Khepupara in Bangladesh around the midnight of May 26 with winds reaching 100-120kmph, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, warning of extremely heavy rainfall and localised flooding in some parts of the eastern state.
On Friday, the system lay centred over central Bay of Bengal as a depression, having strengthened from a well-marked low-pressure area in the last 12 hours, when it moved northeastwards. The depression lay “about 700km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh), about 660km south-southeast of Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and 710km south of Canning (West Bengal)” at 11.30am, IMD said.
The depression is very likely to move further northeast and intensify into a cyclonic storm over east-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of May 25. It well move nearly northwards and intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by May 25 night, the weather agency added.
By the midnight of May 26, it is very likely to cross the costs of Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal between Sagar Island and Khepupara as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 110-120kmph gusting to 130kmph, it said.
The Met office has warned of extremely heavy rainfall in the coastal districts of West Bengal and north Odisha on May 26-27. Extremely heavy precipitation may hit parts of northeast India on May 27-28.
{{/usCountry}}The Met office has warned of extremely heavy rainfall in the coastal districts of West Bengal and north Odisha on May 26-27. Extremely heavy precipitation may hit parts of northeast India on May 27-28.
{{/usCountry}}Buildings in three coastal districts of West Bengal have been earmarked as shelters, district control rooms have been activated, emergency services put on standby and advisories issued to ports in Kolkata and Paradip in Odisha. Adequate shelters, power supply, medicine and emergency services have been kept in readiness.
National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has deployed 12 teams and five additional teams are kept on standby. Rescue and relief teams of the Army, Navy and Coast Guard along with ships and aircraft have been kept in readiness.
Airport authorities in Kolkata held a meeting on Friday afternoon with all stake holders to take stock of the situation.
“We are not expecting any disruption on May 25. The cyclone will hit the coastal areas on the night of May 26. There may be some disruptions on Sunday. We will hold another meeting on Saturday afternoon to discuss further developments,” said an airport official.
The cyclonic storm Remal won’t have a direct impact on Odisha, the regional director of IMD Bhubaneswar said on Friday. However, in its wake, most places of north Odisha are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall and districts like Balasore, Bhadrak and Kendrapara are very likely to witness heavy to very heavy rainfall.
Separately, Union cabinet secretary Rajiv Gauba reviewed the preparedness, directing authorities to ensure zero loss of lives and minimize damage to property.
“The aim should be to keep the loss of lives to zero and minimize damage to property and infrastructure such as power and telecom, and in case of damage, the essential services should be restored in the shortest possible time,” Gauba directs while chairing National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) meeting.
Storm surge of up to 1.5 metre is expected to inundate low-lying areas of coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh at the time of landfall.
Fishermen out at sea have been advised to return to the coast and not venture into the Bay of Bengal until May 27.
IMD also warned of localised flooding and damage to vulnerable structures, power and communication lines, kutcha roads, crops and orchards in South and North 24 Parganas districts of West Bengal.
While predicting the exact impact from Remal is challenging, the Bay of Bengal cyclones have undergone rapid intensification in recent years.
“A CEEW study analysing the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the last five decades found that the districts on the eastern coast of India are highly exposed to the impacts of cyclones. However, considering these risks, the government has been strengthening the adaptive capacity of local stakeholders to reduce the degree of the loss through initiatives like the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP). Our research indicates that 100% of the population exposed to cyclones now has access to early warning systems (EWS). Building on the success of reducing cyclone-related fatalities, India needs to develop frameworks to climate-proof critical infrastructure,” said Vishwas Chitale, Senior Programme Lead, Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW).
According to a CEEW study, West Bengal has a high adaptive capacity against cyclones because of cyclone Multi-Hazard EWS, which is made available under the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP) Phase II. Further, the state’s high tele-density ratio allows people to access early warnings via telephone or mobile.
Cyclone Remal’s impact on the advancement of monsoon over Kerala will be clear after the landfall, officials said.
“For now, the depression is helping monsoon, helping it activate but we have to see how the system develops tomorrow onwards and how it impacts monsoon after landfall,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
With impacts of climate crisis becoming more apparent, experts say that cyclonic storms are intensifying rapidly and retaining their potency for longer due warmer sea surface. A higher sea surface temperature translates into more moisture, which is favourable for the intensification of cyclones.
But in the case of tropical cyclones, even atmospheric conditions play an important role, especially in terms of vertical wind shear — a change in wind speed and/or wind direction with altitude.
The extreme heat in the Indian Ocean has the potential to supercharge the cyclone, a senior IMD official said on Thursday, but added that monsoonal winds have already set in.
“The North Indian Ocean is extremely warm now. Sea surface temperatures of 30-31°C has all the potential to supercharge this cyclone. But monsoonal winds have already set in over Peninsular region and this system is still attached to that monsoon flow. In a day or two it will detach from that flow and travel towards the coast. But its travel time when it has the potential to intensify is short, about 1.5 days. We are hoping that it can intensify only up to a severe or a very severe cyclone with peak winds of around 135 to 140 kmph. But models are showing divergent projections on intensification and landfall point. We have to wait,” the official said.
People in the affected areas have been asked to remain indoors and vacate vulnerable structures.