India will receive “normal” rainfall this monsoon season, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting company said on Tuesday adding that the rainfall will be 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The long period average for June to September period is 880.6mm, based on the average between 1961-2010. Normal rainfall is categorised as between 96-104% of LPA. Last year, monsoon rainfall was 99% of LPA in the “normal” category and in 2020, monsoon was 109% of LPA in “above normal” category.
“The last two monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Niña events. Earlier, La Niña had started shrinking sharply in winters, but its fallback has been stalled on account of the strengthening of trade winds. Though past its peak, La Niña’s cooling of the Pacific Ocean is likely to prevail till a time short of the onset of southwest monsoon. Therefore, the occurrence of El Niño, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out. However, pulsating behaviour of the monsoon is expected to transpire abrupt and intense rains, interspersed by abnormally long dry spells,” said Skymet Weather’s managing director, Jatin Singh in a statement.
“We do not want to comment on a private company’s forecast. IMD will make a detailed monsoon forecast in a press conference in mid-April which will be our initial monsoon forecast that will be updated before June,” said India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general M Mohapatra.
{{/usCountry}}“We do not want to comment on a private company’s forecast. IMD will make a detailed monsoon forecast in a press conference in mid-April which will be our initial monsoon forecast that will be updated before June,” said India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general M Mohapatra.
{{/usCountry}}“We have had two years of La Niña conditions which is now devolving. There is a gradual warming over eastern equatorial pacific. La Niña years are associated with good monsoon and we had two consecutive years of normal and above normal monsoon in 2021 and 2020 respectively. But in June during monsoon onset ENSO neutral (Neither El Niño or La Niña) conditions are likely, which is also favourable for a normal monsoon. Bureau of meteorology, Australia and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are indicating El Niño conditions will not develop until the end of monsoon. This is why we are expecting very good rains during sowing time for kharif crops in June and July. Rains may reduce marginally in August and September though,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of the forecasting company.
In June and July, Skymet Weather expects rainfall to be 107% of LPA and 100% of LPA respectively, while in August and September they expect rainfall to be 95% and 90% of LPA respectively.
Indian Ocean Dipole (the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas) is neutral, with a negative inclination closer to the threshold margins, Skymet Weather said in their statement, adding that negative IOD is not favourable for a good monsoon. “This possibly can lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution,” the statement added.
In terms of geographical risks, Skymet expects Rajasthan and Gujarat along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura of the northeast region to be at risk of being rain deficit throughout the season.
Kerala and North Interior Karnataka are likely to receive less rain in the core monsoon months of July and August, the forecast said.
“Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, the agriculture bowl of North India, and rain-fed areas of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will witness above normal rainfall. The 1st half of the season is expected to fare better than the latter. Monsoon is likely to make a decent start during the onset month of June,” the statement added.
La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impact on weather and climate as El Niño, which is the warm phase of the so-called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
ENSO has a major influence on weather and climate patterns such as heavy rains, floods and drought. In India for example, El Niño is associated with drought or weak monsoon while La Niña is associated with a strong monsoon and above average rainfall and colder winters.
The Monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is crucial to the country’s agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy. Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending.
Monsoon rains are a lifeline for about 60% of the country’s net cultivated area, which has no irrigation.