The monsoon is expected to revive over large parts of northwest and northeast India this week, but the respite may come too late for several rain-fed kharif crops, according to experts. Latest sowing data shows pulses, coarse cereals, cotton and oilseeds continue to trail last year’s pace despite an improvement in rainfall. Several of these crops also remain well below their normal area for this stage of the season.
As of July 17, farmers had sown 65.8 million hectares, down about 6% from 70 million hectares a year earlier. While the gap has narrowed from earlier this month as rainfall improved temporarily, the latest crop-wise data suggest the recovery remains uneven, with rain-fed crops continuing to lag.
The crop-wise sowing data show the stress is concentrated in rain-fed crops. Pulses have emerged as the biggest concern, with sowing at 6.9 million hectares, 15.1% below last year. Coarse cereals covered 11.9 million hectares, 11.2% lower than a year ago, largely because of lower sowing of bajra and maize.
Oilseeds were sown over 14.7 million hectares, 5.5% below last year, with soybean acreage down 4.5% year-on-year. Cotton acreage stood at 9.3 million hectares, nearly 6% lower than a year earlier. Rice, however, has almost caught up with last year’s pace. Paddy acreage reached 16.6 million hectares, just 0.8% below the same period last year.
Agricultural policy experts say the delayed monsoon may already have caused irreversible losses for some crops. “The window for recovering acreage is closing. At this point, much of the shortfall in pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals is likely to be permanent. Farmers today choose crops based as much on income certainty as climatic suitability. Even though these crops can withstand lower rainfall, delayed monsoons make them financially riskier, discouraging farmers from expanding acreage. Unless rainfall improves substantially and remains consistent, I don’t expect a significant recovery this season,” said Sudhir Kumar Suthar, assistant professor at the Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, and founder of the Rural and Agrarian India Network.
{{/usCountry}}Agricultural policy experts say the delayed monsoon may already have caused irreversible losses for some crops. “The window for recovering acreage is closing. At this point, much of the shortfall in pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals is likely to be permanent. Farmers today choose crops based as much on income certainty as climatic suitability. Even though these crops can withstand lower rainfall, delayed monsoons make them financially riskier, discouraging farmers from expanding acreage. Unless rainfall improves substantially and remains consistent, I don’t expect a significant recovery this season,” said Sudhir Kumar Suthar, assistant professor at the Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, and founder of the Rural and Agrarian India Network.
{{/usCountry}}A few crops have bucked the broader trend. Sugarcane acreage increased 1.5% over last year, while sunflower, jute and mesta, kulthi and niger also recorded modest gains, although together they account for a relatively small share of total kharif acreage.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an active phase of the monsoon over northwest and northeast India over the next four to five days, with widespread rainfall expected across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. However, subdued rainfall activity is expected to persist over west-central and peninsular India for much of the week—regions that account for a large share of soybean, cotton and pulses cultivation.
Till July 20, the country had received 263.2 mm of rainfall against a normal 342.1 mm, leaving the seasonal deficit at 23%. Meteorologists expect the deficit to narrow further this week before rainfall activity weakens again towards the weekend.
The coming week is likely to be critical. While the expected revival in rainfall could help narrow the overall sowing gap, particularly in northern and eastern India, another weakening of the monsoon thereafter could limit further recovery in rain-fed crops that depend on timely July rains to complete sowing and establish healthy crop stands, as per Suthar.