Kerala on Wednesday reported 22,414 new cases of Covid-19 with a test positivity rate of 11.37 and the continuous surge has left medical experts baffled. A state with mere 3 per cent of the country’s population, Kerala has been accounting for more than half of the total cases of the country for several days in a row.
The total cases have now reached 3,471,563, with the number of people succumbing to the virus rising to 17,211 after 108 more deaths. Malappuram continued to top the chart with 3.691 cases, followed by Thrissur (2912), Ernakulam (2,663), Kozhikode (2,502), Palakkad (1,928), Kollam (1,527), Kannur (1,299), Kottayam (1,208) and Thiruvananthapuram (1155).
In the case of fatality rate, vaccination, tests and trace and track surveillance mechanism the state is way ahead but it bogged down by the double-digit test positivity rate for more than a month. Lauded during the first wave, the unending second wave has spoiled its records, statistics show. And some experts have also issued a third wave warning.
“The consistent surge indicates that this may be the beginning of a fresh wave. You name it second or third wave it is fact cases are going up alarmingly,” said public health expert Dr S S Lal who earlier worked with the World Health Organisation. Internal medicine expert Dr N M Arun has been studying the case trajectory of the state. “The state going through a fresh wave and if cases rise like this system will drain,” he said.
Out of 18 worst affected districts in the country 10 are in the state. Malappuram is the worst hit district in the state with an average TPR of 15 per cent for the past five days. The district has also an active caseload of 21,603 as of Tuesday and its recovery rate is also slow.
{{/usCountry}}Out of 18 worst affected districts in the country 10 are in the state. Malappuram is the worst hit district in the state with an average TPR of 15 per cent for the past five days. The district has also an active caseload of 21,603 as of Tuesday and its recovery rate is also slow.
{{/usCountry}}Opposition parties in the state have blamed the Pinarayi Vijayan-led CPI (M) government for the surge in cases, even alleging Bakrid relaxations led to the condition worsening in the state. However, statistics show that this was not a sudden hike.
Six district have averaged TPR in double digits for more than a week. What worry experts is that cases remain steady in these districts and most infections are taking place during home isolation. The central team that visited the state also expressed serious reservations over lax home quarantine. The state’s low seropositivity rate is another serious concern -- around 50 per cent of the population is still susceptible to the virus, says the latest serosurvey. “Since half of the population is not affected, we have to vaccinate them on a war footing. We are in touch with the Union government,” said health minister Veena George.
Despite the high volume of cases, pressure is not visible on the overworked health system. Out of 4,250 ICC beds and ventilators (both private and public), 2300 are occupied --1500 are crucially ill and 800 are on ventilator support, according to the state health ministry. And it has 250 metric tonne oxygen in stock.