The rate of spread of Sars-Cov-2, the virus responsible for the coronavirus disease, has slowed sharply in the past month and will decelerate further as a result of the nationwide lockdown, according to Dr Vinod Paul, a member of the government policy think tank NITI Aayog, who heads the empowered group overseeing the Covid-19 medical emergency management plan.
The number of infections is now doubling every week, compared to 3.5. days in the second week of March, said Dr. Paul, who predicted that it will soon reach 10 days.
“We are seeing a flattening of the curve and let us hope it stays that way,’’ he told Hindustan Times, “From infection rates being similar to Italy’s around March 13, it is now moving towards doubling every 10 days.”
The first death of a Covid-19 patient in India was reported on March 12 and the number of infections were 74 at the time.
According to Dr. Paul, who along with home secretary Ajay Bhalla has been part of the task force to decide the lockdown period and how to emerge from it, that’s when measures such as social distancing were announced, some states shut down selected areas and educational institutions started closing.
“We see the impact of this with an inflection point on March 23,’’ said Dr. Paul. `”From doubling every 3.5 days, it then improved to doubling every five days by March 29.’’
{{/usCountry}}“We see the impact of this with an inflection point on March 23,’’ said Dr. Paul. `”From doubling every 3.5 days, it then improved to doubling every five days by March 29.’’
{{/usCountry}}In the next few days, India’s infection rate again quickened.”That’s because of the entire Tablighi Jamaat incident which gave us a scare for the next few days,’’ he said.
Hundreds of Covid-19 positive cases started emerging from among people who participated in the Tablighi Jamaat’s mid-March congregation at the Islamic missionary group’s Markaz headquarters in Nizamuddin , which has since emerged as India’s biggest coronavirus hotspot,
By March 29, India had 1,013 Covid-19 cases, but the daily increase over the next couple of days rose. Dr Paul said it was back on a positive downward curve by April 4 when the doubling rate of infections started easing towards the current seven days.
“The good news is that we are yet to see the full impact of the lockdown and the extended lockdown so we should be seeing the situation improve much, much more. Let’s hope it stays that way,’’ he said.