"While the last two years have seen America focused on a global war on terror in which Iraq has been the epicenter of activity and Iran a periodic distraction, North Korea, it now appears, aided and abetted by Pakistan, has used the American preoccupation elsewhere to develop a full-blown nuclear capability.
Yet, if you question the so-called experts on the matter in the administration you are more likely to hear a different refrain. They will tell you it is impossible to verify North Korea's claim that it is continuing to develop a nuclear weapons program. They would instead have us believe that North Korea is only bluffing the world community, using its nuclear ambitions as a kind of ruse to pressurize America into doling out a handsome package of economic carrots which would bail it out of its difficulties at home.
But, while intelligence accounts of North Korea's nuclear capability vary, most experts believe the country has produced sufficient plutonium for at least six nuclear bombs. Yes, six of them! Lest you forget, North Korea had signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1985. And that's the reason why it would be wrong to say that North Korea has used the cover of Iraq war to develop a nuclear program.
Pyongyang has been at it for a much longer time than most people imagine. It even precedes the later day belligerence of Saddam that led him into Kuwait. The initial clues to North Korea's nuclear ambitions surfaced as early as the 1980s, when international intelligence agencies reported nuclear installations clustered around Yongbyon, 60 miles north of Pyongyang, the capital.
After much cajoling, North Korea had agreed in 1992 to scheduled IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities. Barely a year later, Kim Il-Sung, the father of the current leader, suddenly announced his withdrawal from the NPT when the IAEA demanded additional inspections. After almost two years of blowing hot and cold, policy-makers in Washington and Pyongyang reached a diplomatic settlement. The result was the 1994 aid-for-disarmament deal known as the Agreed Framework that brought North Korea back into compliance with its nonproliferation obligations under the NPT. So far so good.
{{/usCountry}}After much cajoling, North Korea had agreed in 1992 to scheduled IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities. Barely a year later, Kim Il-Sung, the father of the current leader, suddenly announced his withdrawal from the NPT when the IAEA demanded additional inspections. After almost two years of blowing hot and cold, policy-makers in Washington and Pyongyang reached a diplomatic settlement. The result was the 1994 aid-for-disarmament deal known as the Agreed Framework that brought North Korea back into compliance with its nonproliferation obligations under the NPT. So far so good.
{{/usCountry}}Did North Korea respect its obligations under the so-called Agreed Framework? No, it did not. In October 2002, when the Americans confronted North Korea with credible evidence that it had used centrifuges to enrich uranium, North Korea not only admitted to operating a secret nuclear weapons program in violation of the Agreed Framework, it expelled the IAEA weapons inspectors, saying there was "no longer justification" for them to remain in that country. It was only logical that North Korea then decided to withdraw from the NPT and went ahead to declare the Agreed Framework itself as 'invalid'
Faced with no option, America announced the suspension of heavy-fuel oil shipments and other benefits that had been part of the agreement. In August 2003, North Korea and the United States agreed to begin a series of diplomatic discussions that also included China, South Korea, Japan, and Russia. The goal of the so-called six-party talks is to bring North Korea's nuclear program to an end through negotiations.
If the North Korean nuclear story appears bizarre by all accounts, there is an even more bizarre subtext to it and that is the role of Pakistan. It's more bizarre because Pakistan has been hailed as the staunchest ally of the US in its global war on terror and, in return for extending this support, it has received billions of dollars in aid. Yet, who did North Korea turn to when it needed the expertise to further its nuclear aspirations? Pakistan, the thriving black-market of nuclear technology and proliferation.
The world famous rogue Pakistani nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan, who runs a worldwide nuclear black market under the sharp nose of Pervez Musharraf, has admitted to visiting Pyongyang and is believed to have provided North Korea with centrifuge designs, a small number of complete centrifuges, and a list of components needed to manufacture additional centrifuges. Robert Gallucci, the lead U.S. negotiator for the Agreed Framework, says intelligence reports indicate there have been shipments of gas-centrifuge equipment to North Korea--including some from Pakistan--"and that the numbers of units suggest a cascade of thousands of machines is planned."
But enough is enough. The North Korean missiles armed with nuclear weapons may be capable of reaching American targets. And nothing spurs America into activity than a challenge to its invincibility at home. It was confirmed by US officials last week that they had been forced to make a departure from their publicly stated policy and engage in direct discussions with the North Koreans in secret bilateral talks in New York, something the administration had stubbornly vowed not to do when it first came to office.
The question bothering everybody is a different one: If the U.S. cannot prevent North Korea from developing or testing a nuclear weapon, how can it deter North Korea from using one? Such a realization sends shivers down the spines of Japan, South Korea and so many others in the region who have taken comfort in the idea of a U.S. nuclear umbrella for all these post-war years.