Close contest in Kerala

The two dominant parties in Kerala, UDF and LDF, are going all out to reach out to the people, hoping to make a kill winning all the 20 Lok Sabha seats. But the BJP too hopes to get at least four seats.

With Kerala all set to go to the polls on Monday to pick 20 members of Parliament, the mood is upbeat in both the main groupings in the state.

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Both the ruling Congress party-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) hope to win most of the 20 seats on offer.

And the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is also putting up a brave front, claiming it would win at least four seats, thus ending the Congress-Left monopoly over Kerala.

While LDF candidates had a head start in campaigning, the Congress-led UDF has caught up, thanks to its star campaigner -- Kerala Chief Minister AK Antony, who Friday night completed a campaign tour that covered all 140 assembly seats in just 17 days.

In 1999, the UDF won 11 seats and the LDF nine. The BJP got no seat but bagged 158,000 votes - its best showing - in the Thiruvananthapuram constituency where Minister of State for Defence O Rajagopal was a candidate.

If he manages to win this time, it would be one of the biggest surprises of the 2004 Lok Sabha polls.

But veteran Kerala politicians like Oommen Chandy, PP Thankachen and Aryadan Mohammed from the UDF and Thomas Isaac and PJ Joseph from the LDF say the BJP will not open its account in Kerala this time too.

Antony had warned earlier that the polls would be very tough for the UDF. But after passing through 128 of the 140 assembly constituencies he feels the Congress-led alliance has gained the upper hand and could get more than 11 seats.

Of course the opposition does not think so.

"Antony's claim is nothing but a confidence booster for the sagging fortunes of UDF. You wait and see. LDF will come up with one of its best Lok Sabha performances," asserted opposition leader PC George.

The best showing of LDF until now came in 1980 when it won 12 seats. Even some Congress leaders share the opposition's pessimism about UDF.

"I wouldn't predict the outcome. I am not that optimistic," said a senior Congress leader on the condition of anonymity.

What could undo UDF is that groups like the Nair Service Society, Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Sangham, some Muslim organisations and sections of the Church could turn against the Congress-led ruling coalition.

But state Congress president Thankachen says the UDF would win 11 seats and has the potential to bag two more seats.

"The confusion in the CPI(M) over its approach to a Congress government in New Delhi will be the main reason for a UDF victory," said Thankachen.

In 1999, the victory margin was less than 15,000 votes in seven seats -- of which the LDF won five.

With the UDF seemingly catching up at several places, the final tally could swing either way.

The battle is also tough for former chief minister's K Karunakaran's son-cum-Electricity Minister K Muraleedharan (Wadakanchery assembly seat) and daughter Padmaja Venugopal (Mukundapuram Lok Sabha seat).