With polling complete for the new assemblies of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Orissa, Monday's exit polls suggested one strong likelihood: AP Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu was on his way out.
From the high voter turnout of 68-70 per cent in his state — which many a time indicates an anti-incumbency mood in the electorate — to the exit polls conducted by TV channels, it appeared that Naidu would soon have to sit in the opposition.
Star News on Monday forecast the Congress alliance bagging 143-156 seats in the 294-seat assembly; the TDP-BJP combine may tally only 119-136. Zee News gave the Congress alliance 148 seats, with the TDP-BJP managing just 123. After the first phase of polling NDTV had projected the TDP-BJP tallying 120-140 seats, with the Congress alliance getting 140-160 seats.
For the other two states, opinion remained divided. Star News, for instance, saw the likelihood of the ruling party changing in Karnataka as well. It gave 107-119 seats, in a 224 seat assembly, to the BJP alliance, and only 80-92 seats to the Congress. Others, including H.D. Deve Gowda's JD(S), were expected to bag 19-31 seats. The NDTV poll after the first phase, however, saw the Congress retaining its predominance despite a fall in vote percentage — it forecast 110-120 seats to the ruling party, and only 60-70 to the BJP combine, with another 25-35 to "others".
For Orissa, Zee News forecast 85 seats to the ruling BJD-BJP combine, and 51 seats to the Congress, in a 147-seat assembly. NDTV last week predicted Naveen Patnaik's alliance taking anywhere from 40-100 seats, with the Congress behind at 30-40. However, several negative factors — anti-incumbency, presence of 40 BJD-BJP rebels and the absence of a seat-sharing arrangement — would make the going tough for the ruling party, though it is likely to scrape through.
{{/usCountry}}For Orissa, Zee News forecast 85 seats to the ruling BJD-BJP combine, and 51 seats to the Congress, in a 147-seat assembly. NDTV last week predicted Naveen Patnaik's alliance taking anywhere from 40-100 seats, with the Congress behind at 30-40. However, several negative factors — anti-incumbency, presence of 40 BJD-BJP rebels and the absence of a seat-sharing arrangement — would make the going tough for the ruling party, though it is likely to scrape through.
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