The SP and BJP consider the second round of polling in 30 Lok Sabha constituencies of central UP and Bundelkhand crucial.
The BJP has fixed a target of minimum 17 seats. In 1999, it won seven seats. It’s confident of putting up a better show this time, having managed a better caste combination in ticket distribution and a sharp division in Muslim votes in the first phase of polling in the state.
It also believes that unlike in 1999, when Kalyan Singh helped Mulayam Singh, there may not be a consolidation of the backward vote in favour of the SP.
The BJP's revised strategy is to concentrate on seven reserved seats, carpet-bomb the marginal constituencies, actively involve the Sangh and get people to vote.
The fact that Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra are going to campaign there may also help by swinging some Muslim votes towards the Congress.
{{/usCountry}}The fact that Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra are going to campaign there may also help by swinging some Muslim votes towards the Congress.
{{/usCountry}}The SP had won 14 seats in the region last time. If it has to offset its losses in east UP, it can only do it in this region. It has given 10 constituencies in west UP — which goes to the polls in the final phase — to its ally, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). Reports suggest the RLD is unlikely to put up a spectacular performance, given the BSP's presence.
The SP's heavyweights are in the fray in the third phase. Mulayam Singh Yadav, his brother, Ram Gopal Yadav, and son Akhikesh Singh Yadav are contesting from Mainpuri, Sambhal and Kannauj.
The crucial factor is the Muslim vote. In 17 constituencies, Muslim votes vary from 10 to 23 per cent. The SP can't afford a division in this vote-bank. Its strategy is to dispel the notion that it has any tacit understanding with the BJP.
The BSP, which won seven seats in 1999, is on shaky ground, since Bundelkhand may not be the bastion it was.
And, with only two seats, the Congress has little to lose.