High five for Hillary

The convergence of two historic candidates — a woman and an African-American — for the first time was always bound to make poll predictions difficult.

Senator Hillary Clinton’s ‘comeback’ bid to win the New Hampshire primary, after barely losing the women’s vote in Iowa last week, is remarkable. After consistently trailing Democrat contender Barack Obama in the polls, Mrs Clinton reportedly reclaimed it big time in the ‘Granite State’, with a 46 to 34 per cent win — largely made possible by women voters. Not that this is surprising in the US, where women usually make up more than half of those who vote for Democrats across the country. But what will push up eyebrows is the way poll pundits were thrown off track by the last-minute Clinton surge.

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The convergence of two historic candidates — a woman and an African-American — for the first time was always bound to make poll predictions difficult. Add to this the compressed election calendar, with less than a week between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, and it becomes clearer why the pollsters were stumped. And given the fact that independents are expected to play an important role in these elections, many more surprises could be in store. These results indicate that it is going to be a remarkable fight for the Democratic nomination as the candidates move westwards and then south to states like Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina. Till February 5, when the so-called ‘Super Tuesday’ — with more than 20 states holding primary contests or caucuses — will decide the course of the Democratic race.