Jharkhand seems to be heading towards another round of political instability.
If the Congress- Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) combine and the two former constituents of the United Progressive Alliance — Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) — come together, they can, numerically, cobble together a majority.
But that will give the secular camp only a Pyrrhic victory over the BJP, which won significantly fewer seats than in 2005, and has announced its intention of sitting in the opposition.
Soren has made it clear that he will go with whichever formation makes him chief minister. In 2008, when the Congress made him chief minister, it had thought it could drive him from the back seat. That experiment failed and led to the disastrous Madhu Koda regime.
Can the Congress afford to give in to Soren again? A repeat performance will make it difficult for the Congress to escape responsibility as easily as it did last time, even if it supports him from outside. If the Congress convinces Soren to give up his claim to be CM, he is likely to extract a huge price.
Then, if the Congress pitches for JVM leader Babulal Marandi, who has a non-controversial image, as chief minister, as seems likely now, Soren may resist the idea. Reason: Marandi is a Santhal like him and the running feud between two is well known. Then, the Congress may propose Subodh Kant Sahai for the post, but the strong tribal lobby within the party will surely oppose this.
{{/usCountry}}Then, if the Congress pitches for JVM leader Babulal Marandi, who has a non-controversial image, as chief minister, as seems likely now, Soren may resist the idea. Reason: Marandi is a Santhal like him and the running feud between two is well known. Then, the Congress may propose Subodh Kant Sahai for the post, but the strong tribal lobby within the party will surely oppose this.
{{/usCountry}}The other issue before the Congress is: does it want to team up with the RJD in Jharkhand, given its reluctance to have any electoral truck with Lalu Prasad in neighboring Bihar?
The Independents, who may play a critical role, will also want their own pound of flesh — in the form of “lucrative” ministries and contracts.
Given these often conflicting political compulsions, any government that is formed will be vulnerable to blackmail, which can lead to instability.