LTTE may plan covert operation against Karuna: Experts

Analysts say Prabhakaran may go for a suicide commando operation against the 'traitorous' Col Karuna.

Seasoned LTTE watchers say that Tiger chieftain Velupillai Prabhakaran may go for a covert, suicide commando operation to liquidate his "traitorous" eastern commander Col Karuna, and avoid an overt, large-scale military operation against his group as such.

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These sources also say that Karuna may, himself, be planning a covert operation against Prabhakaran following the dictum, "offence is the best form of defence".

Prabhakaran is only too aware of this and has beefed up security, as one saw at a press conference held recently in the LTTE's Headquarters at Kilinochchi.

Karuna, who had been meeting individual journalists, had ceased all such contact by week end. "We have other things to attend to," said his spokesman Varadan, perhaps hinting at an increasing security concern.

The LTTE had told a peace mission headed by the Bishop of Trincomalee and Batticaloa, Rev Kingsley Swampillai, that any action against Karuna would be such that innocent cadres and the people of Batticaloa would not be harmed.

Significantly, the Prabhakaran group did not tell the Bishop that the supremo was ready for a dialogue with Karuna, either alone or in the presence of a neutral entity like the Bishop.

The Supremo is thus sticking to the stand that Karuna has to retire into private life abroad, if necessary with an international guarantee of life. Since Karuna has rejected the conditional amnesty offer, the two have no option but to fight it out. And in the LTTE, this means fight to kill.

Diversionary move

Open warfare is difficult because there are logistical problems of mobility in a situation where a Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) and a MOU with the Sri Lankan government have put insurmountable obstacles to the movement of armed cadres across Sri Lankan army controlled areas.

But the CFA does not put any bar on the movement of unarmed cadres.

"The Island" daily reported on Friday that the Scandinavian-staffed Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) allowed 45 cadres from the Prabhakaran group to cross from Wanni to Sampur in Trincomalee district, which borders Batticaloa district.

Trincomallee may be the staging post/base for any future campaign against Karuna. The unarmed men may be given arms on arrival in Trincomalee.

Taking armed cadres into Batticaloa from LTTE held Mullaitivu by sea is another possibility, but this is also fraught with danger because there are too many prying eyes in that area. Also, under the CFA, the LTTE cannot transfer weapons by sea.

The Sri Lankan navy could legitimately step in and prevent it.

And the Pabhakaran group is already suspicious of the attitude of the Sri Lankan Security Forces in the East.

Tamilselvan had accused a section of field level officers of the Sri Lankan armed forces of keeping contact with Karuna, and had complained about it to the Norwegian Peace Envoy, Erik Solheim, when the latter met him on Thursday.

But Karuna may be preparing himself to face a sea borne expeditionary force. His own brother, Reggie, is said to be in control the Vakarai-Kalkuda stretch of the coast.

Tight proximate security

Even if a small commando force steals into Batticaloa by land or sea, it will very difficult to penetrate Karuna's camp or his hideout defences. It is believed that Karuna has built up a handpicked elite guard which is fiercely loyal to him. "He has learnt much from his erstwhile chief, Prabhakaran," a journalist who knew the Eastern leader well, said.

" Karuna knows Prabhakaran's mind and can be expected to be prepared for all eventualities," said a military expert. "There may, however, be one chink in his armour, namely, a mole in his midst. In fact, both sides know that there may be moles in their midst and are constantly vigilant," the expert added.

In the last 2 to 4 years, Karuna is believed to have built a military and political structure in Batticalao which is clearly under his exclusive command. It is because of the existence of this exclusive network and power base, that his rivals in the district had no option but to flee when the stand off began.

Top people like Ramesh, Kausalyan and Karikalan just could not remain in Batticaloa for any length of time without endangering their lives or getting arrested.

Military experts say that Karuna is not only a very experienced and competent military commander but has a larger number of combat cadres under him, at the present time.

"Yes, his cadres are very young recruited in the last two years, but Karuna had been training them well," said a knowledgeable source in Batticaloa.

" In the LTTE as such, boys and girls from the East constitute the single largest fighting group. They may not go against a leader from their own area in an open confrontation," the military expert ventured to guess.

However, Prabhakaran's spokesman, Tamilselvan, has expressed confidence that these cadres will be loyal to Prabhakaran when the appropriate leadership arrives to take over from Karuna.

The newly appointed commander, Ramesh, is to return to Batticaloa at the earliest. "There is no need to send cadres from any other place. We already have thousands of loyal cadres in Batticaloa itself," Tamilselvan told the "Uthayan" daily recently.

Tamilselvan told the press earlier in the month, that the elite Jayanthan Brigade, recruited from the East, was in Wanni, and was therefore with Prabhakaran.

But according to the latest report of the Tamil human rights group, UTHR-J, when the stand off with Karuna began, the Jayanthan group, recruited by Karuna, was quickly surrounded by the Charles Anthony Brigade loyal to Prabhakaran, and disarmed.

The entire brigade was put under house arrest, the UTHR-J report said. But some observers wonder if this brigade can be trusted to fight against Karuna in case it is taken to the East and thrown into battle against him.

'Look west to talk east'

In view of the obvious difficulties in indulging in open warfare, and moving and deploying large numbers of men and material across unfriendly territory, it is likely that the reported gathering of forces in the Varagal river area for a river crossing, is only be a diversionary move.

The real action plan may be something else. As an expert in covert operations put it: "Prabhakaran may be following Mao's dictum: look west to talk east!"