Muslim votes likely to play the decider

AS THE cacophony of campaigning settles down and political parties finalise last minute strategies, the one thing that is dogging the minds of candidates is the emergence of the M factor as the likely decider for tomorrow?s poll.

AS THE cacophony of campaigning settles down and political parties finalise last minute strategies, the one thing that is dogging the minds of candidates is the emergence of the M factor as the likely decider for tomorrow’s poll.

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The likely division of Muslim votes has queered the pitch for a close fight between the mayoral candidates of the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) here.

Though only a few hours are left before voters seal the fate of candidates in ballot boxes, political pundits here claim that Muslims are confused this time.

The confusion among Muslim voters stems primarily from the Samajwadi Party (SP) decision to put up rebel BJP leader Neeraj Chaturvedi for the mayor’s post.

Muslims — considered strong support base of the SP — have deviated to some extent from the ruling party as they recognise Neeraj as a hardcore Hindutva leader who during his BJP days was habitual in spitting venom against the community.

Interestingly, Muslims are also not opening their cards this time. So an en bloc shift of votes in favour of the Congress is not visible.

The reason is Congress mayoral candidate Badri Narayan Tewari’s image among Muslims. He is known for organising the religious event Manas Sangam and owns the Shivala temple property. Besides, several loyal Samajwadi Party Muslims would refrain from voting for the Congress.

But with city Congress MP and Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Sri Prakash Jaiswal strongly pitching in support of Tewari, the chances of the mayoral aspirant has brightened considerably.

Jaiswal’s strong base in the city, road shows and public meetings have helped Tewari to overcome the inner difference among city Congress leaders. Tewari is now in for a neck and neck fight with BJP’s Rabindra Patni. The surprise beneficiary of this split in Muslim votes is likely to be BJP’s Rabindra Patni. The upper caste equation is likely to be in Patni’s advantage. Brahmins who comprise about 7 lakh of the over 17 lakh voters and Vaishyas have remained almost loyal towards BJP.

This time the party also stands firmly behind Patni and this show of unity has gone down well with voters. As a candidate also, Patni is non-controversy.

Despite all these positive attributes, Tewari is expected to give Patni a run for his money.

But one more candidate who can expect to benefit from the division of Muslim votes is Bahujan Samaj Party-supported mayoral aspirant Salim Ahmed. There is view that Muslims might rally around Ahmed. But what seems to dampen Ahmed’s chances is the symbol. If he has managed to convince BSP workers that the kite is as powerful as the elephant, then Ahmed can rewrite the prime contenders.

All said and done, when ballots boxes will be opened on November 6 the story will already have been written.