The twists and turns of electoral politics have had a curious effect: Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee has been helping Congress President Sonia Gandhi revive her party.
It's probably not what he intended — all he wants (as does Sonia) is to prevent the Samajwadi Party from emerging as a major force in Uttar Pradesh. In the process, he has done more damage to his "ideologically compatible" friend Mulayam Singh Yadav than even Sonia has.
Vajpayee knows Muslims won't move en masse to the BJP. So he's trying to sow the seeds of confusion amongst them. He's also trying to confuse his opposition. His latest statement in Lucknow that Muslims should vote for the SP and not the Congress, ought to be seen in this context.
People are already suspicious that Mulayam came to power in Uttar Pradesh with the tacit support of the BJP; the Prime Minister's "appeal" will only strengthen doubts that the SP will strike a post-poll deal with the NDA. And the Muslims, who formed a solid vote-bank for the SP during the past decade and a half, may shift towards the Congress.
This suits the BJP. In 1999, its challenge came from the SP and the BSP, not the Congress. A weak SP thus helps the BJP increase its tally.
Going by the 1999 performance of the parties in the 30 UP seats going to polls next week, the Congress is unlikely to put up a strong fight — it won only two constituencies and finished fourth in 17 seats.
{{/usCountry}}Going by the 1999 performance of the parties in the 30 UP seats going to polls next week, the Congress is unlikely to put up a strong fight — it won only two constituencies and finished fourth in 17 seats.
{{/usCountry}}In two seats, it came a lowly fifth. In 10 seats, it got less than 50,000 votes; in these seats, the SP and the BSP were the gainers.
The BJP, on the other hand, won eight and finished second in 16 seats. In nine constituencies, the victory margins were less than 20,000 votes — of these the BJP won three, the SP three and the BSP four. In Ghatampur, the BSP won by only 105 votes, the lowest margin in 1999.
The exit polls predict a hung Parliament. It appears the Congress is treating the 2004 elections as a semi-final. The party knows it can't capture the Centre till it improves in UP. For that, it needs to regain its traditional voter base of Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins.
With Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka drawing an unprecedented response, the party's prospects of revival appear within grasp. Only the SP and the BSP are its stumbling blocks. But the Prime Minister seems to be taking care of that for them.