With 70 assembly seats, the Delhi Vidhan Sabha has so far remained immune to the national trend of coalition governments. But with the demographics of the city changing rapidly, this may not be the case in the near future and political parties which have a marginal following today, may end up playing a bigger role in government formation here in the future.
If today, the Nationalist Congress Party with 33 candidates, the Bahujan Samaj Party with 40 candidates and the Indian National Lok Dal with six candidates, may or may not be in a position to make a big difference, the situation two assembly elections down the line may be very different.
Past experience shows that in a keenly contested election, like in 1993, a third party in the fray, the Janata Dal under Ram Vir Singh Bidhuri, had won only three seats but had succeeded in making a dent in 25 potentially Congress seats which had helped the BJP send Madan Lal Khurana in as the Chief Minister. Earlier, in 1991, a similar political alliance had ensured that Congress’ H.K.L. Bhagat lost to BJP’s BL Sharma Prem.
In these elections, the NCP, which has turned into a second home for several disgruntled Congress leaders, with 33 candidates may play spoiler to Congress aspirations and give the benefit to the BJP. But before it can do much damage, it has to change the common perception that it is a Congress B team and a last resort for side-lined Congress leaders.
{{/usCountry}}In these elections, the NCP, which has turned into a second home for several disgruntled Congress leaders, with 33 candidates may play spoiler to Congress aspirations and give the benefit to the BJP. But before it can do much damage, it has to change the common perception that it is a Congress B team and a last resort for side-lined Congress leaders.
{{/usCountry}}The INLD, despite its image as a Jat party, had shown its seriousness of intent in its showing during the DUSU elections, and is going all out to claim at least one seat in these assembly elections. Its hold in the rural belt can only increase unless aspirations of this vote bank are addressed by the mainstream parties. INLD wants to make its presence in this assembly at any cost and may be able to push in at least one candidate.
The BSP had managed to gain six per cent of the votes cast in the last corporation elections and hopes to improve on that show. With Mayawati’s open feud with the BJP, the BJP hopes of using her party to eat into the traditional Congress vote bank are gone.
In a small assembly like Delhi, with only 70 seats, even five or seven seats can make the difference in the formation of a government in a keenly contested fight. But should there be a wave, these calculations become inconsequential.
The reality of regional aspirations in Delhi politics cannot be escaped. As members of different communities grow in Delhi, the traditional calculations made by parties may go haywire. The troika of Jat, Vaish and Punjabi votes deciding Delhi’s fate is a story of the past. Crucial vote banks now include the Purabiya and Uttaranchal voters as well. If the aspirations of voters from these regions are not met by the mainline parties, it will be an open invitation to Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mayawati to stake claim here. A lesson the mainline parties need to learn is that while distributing tickets, they need to take into account these new regional equations as well.